Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. In the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released, while in the UK, the retail sales report for February will be released. Both of these reports hold little value for traders given the current circumstances. Over the past month and a half, the market has ignored many more important and significant reports. Traders continue to focus their attention on the Middle East.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, only a few speeches by European Central Bank representatives can be noted, particularly by Isabel Schnabel. However, the markets received comprehensive information about the plans of all three central banks last week. We learned that the Federal Reserve will likely not resume lowering the key rate until at least December 2026, and unlike the ECB and the Bank of England, it is not looking to tighten monetary policy. According to Christine Lagarde, the ECB is ready to tighten at the next meeting, but only if inflation accelerates significantly. All three central banks anticipate higher consumer prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven unprecedented increases in oil and gas prices. Thus, inflation reports will dictate central banks' monetary policy in the near future. Donald Trump hinted again last night at the possibility of negotiations with Iran, but there is still no official confirmation from either side.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, the market may witness any movements, as news from the Middle East can arrive at any time and is often contradictory. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3319-1.3331. We still do not see any grounds for a strong and sustained rise in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), but the market remains fully focused on geopolitics, which only supports the safe-haven dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.