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The situation in the Middle East has put logistics — and the very survival of the region's largest economies — on the verge of survival. The IRGC's warning reads like an epitaph for the old world order. Tehran's "list of legitimate targets" (from Saudi Arabia's Samref refinery to Chevron assets in Qatar) is a direct threat to 30% of global energy exports. Iran is no longer merely talking about "closing" the strait — it plans to physically destroy the production base of its opponents in response to strikes on its own platforms. An attack on the industrial city of Ras-Laffan is not another isolated incident; it strikes the "solar plexus" of the global LNG market.
Qatar, long trying to remain neutral, has officially accused others of violating its sovereignty and asserted the right to respond. When Doha evacuates personnel from major gas facilities, markets read that as preparation for a major war. Donald Trump has taken a radical step, temporarily suspending the Jones Act of 1920. For US policy, this is tectonic — abandoning a century of maritime protectionism to reduce shipping costs for oil, gas and fertilisers between US ports. The White House measure is intended to flood domestic markets with goods using foreign fleets.
While the Hormuz blockade strangles global supply chains, Trump is trying to buy time and reduce consumer pain ahead of a critical November. In essence, this is an admission that the US logistics system cannot cope with the pace of the MAGA-era overhaul under wartime conditions. Vice President J.D. Vance is acting as the "reassurer" for Wall Street, calling the oil spike temporary and blaming Biden's legacy. But markets trust India's actions more — Delhi has already sent warships to escort its vessels. Trump keeps insisting allies must take on the protection of the strait themselves "as soon as Iran falls."
Meanwhile, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard made a sharp public statement about Pakistan, calling it the main nuclear threat. That could signal preparations to widen the zone of conflict or to apply preemptive pressure on Islamabad to prevent it from aiding Tehran. The US also has Cuba in its sights. Without oil from Venezuela and Mexico, Cuba faces 20-hour blackouts. The storming of Communist Party committees in Moron sends a clear signal: ideology is losing out to sheer survival. Diaz-Canel's admission of talks with the US is a forced capitulation to reality. But can Trump parlay a "Cuban solution" into a triumph while the Middle East burns?
The Fed's hawkish pause
The March Fed meeting confirmed the worst fears of optimists. The regulator left the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% despite a dissident call from Stephen Miran for an immediate cut. The dot plot reads like a death sentence for the bulls: seven officials see no reason to cut this year. The macroeconomic backdrop for 2026 is growing more alarming:
Core inflation forecasts have been raised to 2.7%
The Middle East situation is now officially classified as a factor of "uncertainty"
The Federal Reserve has effectively admitted it cannot control external supply shocks. The jobs market is stagnating, but for the Fed, that is secondary to the risk of entrenching inflation above the 2% target. We are seeing a classic "hawkish pause" that — in wartime — can be prolonged into autumn. Jerome Powell displayed icy calm at the press conference. His rhetoric left no room for ambiguity: if inflation does not fall, rates may not only remain steady but could rise. Powell stressed the Fed is not tied to calendars and "is in no hurry" to hand out cheap money.
A particular emphasis was placed on the Middle East. The Fed chief explicitly linked the future path of rates to gasoline and energy prices. In effect, the Fed has shifted responsibility for monetary policy outcomes onto the shoulders of Iranian missiles and US logisticians. While "black gold" assaults record highs, Powell will keep the economy in "restrictive" tongs. Behind the dry GDP figures, an unprecedented political battle is unfolding. Powell's term expires in May, but he refuses to leave the board while the Justice Department's investigation into headquarters reconstruction continues. For markets, this means a period of dual authority and paralysis.
Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, is hostage to this situation. Senator Tom Tillis said he will block Warsh's confirmation while Powell is under investigation, which Tillis regards as politically motivated. This creates the perfect storm:
the regulator is leaderless
the Justice Department is attacking
Donald Trump is furious about being unable to quickly replace the Fed with doves
Powell risks remaining in place as a "lame duck" with unlimited authority
This only adds volatility to an already jittery market. While the Middle East burns, U.S. equity indices are underwater. Brent jumped 8% and briefly pierced $112, condemning the trading session. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday down 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones fell in sync. The Gulf war is literally flooding markets with volatility, obliterating chances of a recovery. The energy shock has been the trigger that turned cautious pessimism into mass selling.
As stock indices fall, the US Treasury logs a historic record — US federal debt has topped $39 trillion for the first time. That means a "backpack" of $114,319 now rests on every citizen. Against this background, the FOMC's pause added a hefty dose of hawkish rhetoric to the market cocktail. Fed officials' scepticism about rate cuts in 2026 is reinforced by an aggressive consumer price index. Trump's tariff wars and surging energy prices have created an inflation trap with no painless exit for the Fed.
Strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure have ricocheted onto US corporate earnings. Treasury yields are rising, pressuring all sectors. Fintechs have been hit hard: Visa (-3.1%) and Mastercard (-3.7%) fell on rising funding costs. Surprisingly, even defensive stocks (B&G and Walmart) fell more than 2.5% as investors no longer trust consumer resilience under current gasoline prices. Only Micron, despite the Nasdaq rout, closed flat — a sign that faith in semiconductors still trumps fears of war.
The dollar index (DXY) has decisively crossed the 100 mark. Traders are seeking refuge in cash while the Fed deliberates on the "uncertainty of war's consequences." Cuts are pushed out to December 2026 or even January 2027, effectively freezing markets in their present state. As the Fed tightens, the ECB prefers wary observation. Most analysts expect rates to remain unchanged this Thursday. The current configuration — 2% deposit rate and 2.15% main refinancing — has been in place since July 2025, creating an illusion of stability.
But a split is brewing inside the regulator. While conservative economists (Bloomberg, Reuters) predict unchanged rates through year?end, market players are already pricing in two hikes, the first possibly "firing" in June. Christine Lagarde is caught in a vice: fragile 1.2% growth on the one hand, the specter of a 2022?style inflation shock on the other. Can Lagarde stop fuel inflation? The main nightmare for the Eurasian region is a Brent and WTI surge of more than 40% since late February. February's "comfortable" 1.9% inflation in the Eurozone should not mislead – those are pre?escalation figures.
The true scale of the disaster will show up only in the April data. Lagarde publicly promises to avoid a repeat of the energy collapse four years ago, but the ECB's tools are limited. If December's forecast (1.9% inflation in 2026) once looked realistic, today it seems to come from another life. The regulator will have to admit: the "target" is again becoming an unattainable dream. Like Trump's promise to quickly finish the Iran operation, it is melting faster than the strategic oil reserves. HSBC has already prepared a "reality scenario": if energy prices remain at current highs, Eurozone inflation could breach 3% in H2.
19 March
19 March, 00:45 / New Zealand / GDP growth, Q4 / prev.: -1.0% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: 0.4% / NZD/USD – down New Zealand's economy grew 1.1% in Q3 2025 after a 1.0% contraction in the previous quarter. The positive GDP print signals a recovery in domestic demand and adaptation of key manufacturing sectors to the current macro environment. This indicator is the most comprehensive measure of the national economy, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. If Q4 confirms the 0.4% forecast, the kiwi will weaken.
19 March, 02:50 / Japan / Machinery orders, January / prev.: -6.4% / actual: 16.8% / forecast: 10.5% / USD/JPY – up Japan's year?on?year machinery orders rose 16.8% in December 2025 after a 6.4% drop in November. The result materially exceeded historical averages and reflects a sharp rebound in industrial investment activity. Machinery orders are a leading indicator for corporate capital spending, underlining a strengthening of the country's production capacity at the start of the year. If January orders reach the 10.5% forecast, the yen will weaken.
19 March, 03:30 / Australia / Employment change, February / prev.: 68.5k / actual: 17.8k / forecast: 20.3k / AUD/USD – up Australian employment rose 17.8k in January 2026 to a new peak of 14.7 million. The gain marks a second consecutive month of job growth, driven mainly by a rise in full-time employment of over 50k. Despite a fall in part-time work, labour force participation remains high, indicating a healthy jobs market. If February employment rises to the 20.3k forecast, the Australian dollar will strengthen.
19 March, 06:00 & 09:30 / Japan / BOJ policy decision / prev.: 0.75% / actual: 0.75% / forecast: 0.75% / USD/JPY – volatile At its first meeting of 2026, the Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate at 0.75%, the highest in 30 years. The bank upgraded its growth and inflation projections, citing effects from new trade deals and fiscal stimulus. Despite calls for immediate tightening, the board preferred to assess the resilience of current price dynamics before further steps. Maintaining a gradual tightening stance reflects the BOJ's confidence in a stable economic trajectory supported by fiscal measures. The decision will produce volatility in USD/JPY.
19 March, 07:30 / Japan / Industrial production, January (final) / prev.: -2.2% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.3% / USD/JPY – up Japan's industrial production rose 2.6% year-on-year in December 2025, fully offsetting the 2.2% fall in the previous month. The final result exceeded historical averages, confirming industrial sector resilience into the new year. Despite volatile external demand, capacity is adapting to macro challenges. If January production hits the 2.3% forecast, the yen will weaken.
19 March, 10:00 / UK / Employment change, January / prev.: 82k / actual: 52k / forecast: -4k / GBP/USD – down UK employment increased by 52k in Q4 2025 to 34.244 million — the second consecutive period of gains, but slower than the prior 82k jump. Hiring was primarily in part?time roles, while employment-to-population fell to 75.0%. If January employment falls to a forecasted -4k, sterling will weaken.
19 March, 13:00 / Euro area / Construction output, January / prev.: -1.4% / actual: -0.9% / forecast: -0.2% / EUR/USD – up Euro area construction output fell 0.9% year?on?year in December 2025. The pace of decline eased from November, but the sector remains pressured by high borrowing costs and weak investment demand. Current readings are below long?run averages, reflecting stagnation in development. If January's decline slows to -0.2% as forecast, the euro will be supported.
19 March, 13:00 / Euro area / Compensation per employee (wages), Q4 / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 2.8% / EUR/USD – down Wage growth in the euro area slowed to 3.0% in Q3 2025, the weakest in three years. The largest cooling occurred in the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and Germany. Reduced wage pressure from the labour market could give the ECB room to ease policy in the medium term. If Q4 wage growth slows to the 2.8% forecast, the euro would weaken.
19 March, 15:00 / UK / Bank of England policy decision, press conference / prev.: 3.75% / actual: 3.75% / forecast: 3.75% / GBP/USD – volatile The BoE is expected to keep the policy rate at 3.75% amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Escalation in the Middle East and oil prices above $100/bbl have pushed the bank into a cautious stance, delaying plans to ease monetary conditions. Market expectations have shifted toward a longer period of high rates to contain inflation risks. If the BoE holds at 3.75%, sterling volatility should increase.
19 March, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 214k / actual: 213k / forecast: 215k / USDX – down Initial jobless claims in the first week of March 2026 were 213k, near prior levels. The data confirm a labour market with low layoffs despite a broader slowdown in hiring. Continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, reflecting stability in unemployment flows. Markets will also watch federal worker claims amid government shutdown risks. If initial claims rise to 215k, the dollar index will ease.
19 March, 15:30 / US / Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, March / prev.: 12.6 / actual: 16.3 / forecast: 10.0 / USDX – down The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 16.3 in February 2026, the highest since last autumn. Despite sustained new order inflows, shipments slowed sharply. Most firms report negative effects from trade tariffs, but business expectations for the next six months have strengthened. Input price pressure remains, but has moderated from earlier months. If the index falls to the 10.0 forecast, the dollar index will weaken.
19 March, 16:15 & 16:45 / Euro area / ECB policy decision, press conference / prev.: 2.15% / actual: 2.15% / forecast: 2.15% / EUR/USD – volatile The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2.15% amid Middle East tensions. The bank is taking a cautious stance to avoid triggering new energy shocks while maintaining inflation control. Investors will focus on updated projections and remarks from Christine Lagarde about whether rhetoric will turn tougher. If the ECB confirms the 2.15% forecast, the euro will be volatile.
19 March, 17:00 / US / New single?family home sales, January / prev.: 0.737m / actual: 0.745m / forecast: 0.720m / USDX – down US new single-family home sales were 745k in December 2025. Despite a small dip from a four-year high, the number exceeded expectations. Midwest and West gains were partially offset by a sharp Northeast decline. Falling inventories indicate persistent demand despite a high prior base. If January sales fall to the 0.720m forecast, the dollar index will ease.
20 March
20 March, 04:15 / China / People's Bank of China policy rate (1?year) / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.0% / Brent and USD/CNY – volatile The People's Bank of China left its one-year benchmark lending rate at 3.0% for the ninth consecutive month in February. The regulator is pursuing a balanced approach, seeking to support growth while guarding financial stability. Despite meeting GDP targets for 2025, structural imbalances and trade frictions continue to weigh on business confidence. The central bank signalled the possibility of further easing of monetary conditions and reductions in reserve requirements to stimulate domestic demand later in the year. Holding the policy rate at the 3.0% forecast will generate volatility for Brent crude and USD/CNY.
German producer prices fell 3.0% year?on?year in January 2026, a deeper decline than in December. The main downward drivers were cheaper energy — particularly natural gas and electricity — and lower food prices. Ex-energy, there was modest upward pressure from capital goods and durables. The reading reflects a gradual easing of inflationary pressure at the production level while costs remain elevated in some sectors. If February confirms the -2.7% forecast, the euro should strengthen.
20 March, 13:00 / Euro area / Trade balance, January (surplus) / prev.: €9.3bn / actual: €12.6bn / forecast: €12.8bn / EUR/USD – up The euro area trade surplus was €12.6bn in December 2025. The current surplus is well above long?run averages, reflecting the region's resilient external position after record highs in spring last year. Export and import dynamics point to a gradual stabilization of trade flows amid changing global conditions. A January surplus rising to the forecasted €12.8bn would support the euro.
20 March, 15:30 / Canada / Retail sales, January (final) / prev.: 3.1% / actual: 0.0% / forecast: 1.0% / USD/CAD – down Canadian retail sales were flat in December 2025, signalling stagnation after a 3.1% gain in the previous period. The result is well below the long-run average of 4.6% and indicates a notable cooling in consumer activity at year?end. Lack of retail growth points to weaker domestic demand as the economy adjusts to current financial conditions. If January confirms the 1.0% forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen.
20 March, 15:30 / Canada / Producer prices, February / prev.: 4.3% / actual: 5.4% / forecast: 5.5% / USD/CAD – down Canadian producer prices rose 5.4% year-on-year in January 2026, up from 4.3% in December and well above the long-run average of 3.46%. The reading reflects stronger inflationary pressure in the industrial sector. Sustained growth in production costs may translate into higher consumer inflation later. If February confirms the 5.5% forecast, USD/CAD should fall.
19 March, 05:30 & 09:30 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY 19 March, 16:45 / Euro area / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD 21 March, 11:30 / Euro area / Speech by Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD 21 March, 20:30 / US / Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell / USDX
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled on these days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they can indicate future policy intentions.
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