Review of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.1360 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

Business sentiment in Germany continued to recover in June, prompting only a limited positive reaction from the euro before it resumed its decline. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 85.6 points from 85.0 in May. Preliminary data suggests that the improvement was driven by stronger sentiment in the manufacturing sector, where companies became more optimistic about both current conditions and future prospects. However, despite the positive trend, overall business activity remains below its long-term average, highlighting the ongoing challenges facing the German economy.

During the second half of the day, investors will focus on the release of important U.S. macroeconomic data that could influence financial markets. Particular attention will be paid to the indicator reflecting the country's current account balance. This figure measures the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services, as well as investment income and transfer payments.

In addition, new home sales data will be released during the same period. This indicator is considered one of the key leading measures of economic health. Rising sales volumes typically correlate with stronger consumer activity and, consequently, positive developments in related sectors. Conversely, weaker figures may signal slowing consumer demand or problems in the housing market, which would have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1361 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1394. At 1.1394, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further gains in the euro are likely only if U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1335 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1361 and 1.1394 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1335 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1300, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pair is expected to persist today.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1361 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1335 and 1.1300 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without applying proper money management principles.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.