Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.19 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 158.19 triggered Scenario No. 2 for buying the dollar, resulting in the pair rising to around 158.48.

Today, the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on monetary policy is scheduled. Given the current situation, this document will most likely contain fairly strict language reflecting concerns about inflation and the war in the Middle East. However, a more detailed understanding of the Fed's future monetary policy outlook may still be gained from today's speeches by representatives of the Federal Open Market Committee. In particular, statements from Christopher Waller and Mary Daly are expected. Their comments, made after Trump's announcement of a two-week truce with Iran, will serve as a kind of filter for interpreting the Fed's future actions. Investors will carefully analyze how closely their remarks align with or contradict the information presented in the official document, looking for subtle hints about the regulator's next steps.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 158.57 is reached (green line on the chart), with a target of 158.99 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.99, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). It is unlikely to count on strong growth of the pair today.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.35 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 158.57 and 158.99 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 158.35 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.86, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.57 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.35 and 157.86 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.