Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1530 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1555 and even exceeded it.

The euro continued to rise during the European session. Geopolitical swings are keeping traders on edge: one moment it's the end of an ultimatum, the next it's the signing of a ceasefire agreement—new developments every minute that require a reaction. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair is showing an upward trend. A breakout above key resistance levels indicates strengthening bullish sentiment, but all of this holds only until a potential new strike by the US and Israel on Iran.

In the second half of the day, the US ISM Services PMI for March is expected. If the actual figures come in better than expected, this could strengthen the position of those favoring continued tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Positive data from the services sector signals stable economic growth and increasing consumer demand, which could in turn contribute to rising inflation. Therefore, the release of the March ISM Services Index is an important event that requires close attention. Strong figures could trigger a renewed downward trend in EUR/USD and push the pair lower.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1563 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1582. At 1.1582, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Expect euro growth today only if US labor market data is weak.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1547 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1563 and 1.1582 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1547 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1524, where I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1563 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1547 and 1.1524 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or where to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or where to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important Notes for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.