The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has taken on a less desirable appearance, but it still raises no major questions. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January last year; only the internal wave structure is occasionally adjusted. In my opinion, the pair has completed the formation of global wave 4 (lower chart). If this assumption is correct, then wave 5 is currently continuing to develop, which could become quite extended, with targets reaching as high as the 1.2500 level.

The internal wave structure of the presumed wave 5 is not entirely clear (upper chart). The upward wave sequence cannot be considered impulsive due to rather strong corrective waves. Therefore, at the moment it is interpreted as a-b-c-d-e. However, if wave 5 becomes extended, its internal structure will also turn out to be quite complex. I expect the EUR/USD pair to resume its rise, and the corrective a-b-c-d-e structure already appears fairly complete. Unfortunately, it may become more extended due to the conflict in the Middle East.

The EUR/USD pair declined by another 50 basis points on Thursday, after falling by 35 the previous day. Demand for the U.S. currency continues to grow, although not at a very rapid pace, which fully reflects the current global situation. The conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of ending, and it is already beginning to create the impression that it is simply very beneficial for someone. For example, the United States, which is the world's largest producer of oil. The war involving Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, which inevitably leads one to ask: who benefits from this? The answer may again be the United States, which throughout 2025, under Donald Trump, actively pushed trade agreements worldwide requiring partners to purchase energy resources from the U.S. America has an enormous national debt, China continues to close the gap, and a major financial inflow is urgently needed to help move the U.S. economy to a new level.

Therefore, at the moment, the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East will continue for a long time appears realistic. Of course, people want to believe in a better outcome, but it appears the whole world may be facing difficult times. The key beneficiary of these developments could be the U.S. dollar. Although I do not believe the EUR/USD pair will return to the levels seen at the beginning of 2025, under the current circumstances it is extremely difficult to believe in a decline of the U.S. currency, regardless of the economic news background in the United States. Based on all of the above, the U.S. currency may continue strengthening despite weak economic data, despite the wave structure, despite the situation in the Eurozone, and so on.

General conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues forming an upward trend segment, but it may complete it in the near future due to the sharply changing news background. Markets are now focused only on oil and gas prices and the situation in the Middle East. At the moment I am not yet ready to conclude that the upward trend has ended, but it is also quite difficult to believe that the war involving Iran will end soon. Consequently, the wave structure may require adjustments in the near future.

On the smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not the most standard one, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than strictly trying to label every single wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. Absolute certainty about the direction of movement never exists and never will. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.