Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1810 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Weak lending data in the eurozone indeed became one of the factors that limited the upward potential of the single European currency in the first half of the day. The lack of credit growth in the region may signal broader economic problems than just a slowdown in business activity. Market participants will next closely monitor the release of weekly jobless claims data in the United States. This indicator serves as one of the most timely gauges of the U.S. labor market, and any deviation from forecasts could trigger noticeable volatility in financial markets. In addition, a speech by Federal Open Market Committee member Michelle Bowman will have a significant impact on investor sentiment. Traders will likely try to understand her stance on the future direction of monetary policy, which could become a source of new market movements.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1809 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1826. At 1.1826, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Strong euro growth can only be expected after a dovish Federal Reserve stance.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1794 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1809 and 1.1826 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1794 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1776, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1809 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1794 and 1.1776 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where you can place Take Profit orders or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where you can place Take Profit orders or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by default, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.