Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 157.32 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 30 pips.

After expectations of future monetary easing from the Federal Reserve increased, the dollar lost ground. This decline was particularly evident against the Japanese yen. Investors began shifting assets into other currencies as lower US interest rates are believed to diminish the dollar's attractiveness. However, caution is advised when selling the USD/JPY pair, as despite the Bank of Japan's tight policy, the future trajectory of interest rate increases remains uncertain.

Regarding the intra-day strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if it reaches the entry point around 156.20 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.59, I plan to exit my long positions and open a short position immediately on a bounce, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.95 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 156.20 and 156.59.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 155.95 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.65, where I plan to exit my short positions and open long positions immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.20 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.95 and 155.65.

Chart Annotations:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make very cautious decisions regarding market entry. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.