The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed, but overall it still remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, although the wave structure since July 1 has become complex and extended. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very non-standard shape. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.
In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not complete, and its targets may extend as far as the 1.25 level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e looks complete; therefore, I expect a new upward wave sequence to form in the coming weeks. We have already seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 3 or c. I initially expected this wave to push the pair up to 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, but this wave is turning out to be more extended—which is very positive, as it increases the likelihood that it will be impulsive. And with it, the entire upward wave sequence as well.
The EUR/USD pair rose only slightly during Monday ahead of the U.S. session, with today's price swings remaining subdued. This is hardly surprising given that market participants are facing a "news nightmare" tomorrow. It is not so much about a potential wave of disappointment sweeping the market, but rather about the sheer volume of important reports that could overwhelm the market's ability to react. Data will be released in rapid succession: business activity indices, economic expectations indices, the unemployment rate, payrolls, and then business activity indices again. As a result, tomorrow could be very dangerous for the euro, the dollar, and many market participants.
Today, the euro area released industrial production data, which pales in comparison with tomorrow's statistics. The market barely noticed it, even though for the first time in a long while the figure came in strong and no worse than expected. Nevertheless, demand for the European currency has been rising since last week, fully in line with my expectations. Let me remind you that I continue to base my outlook on the wave count and on the fact that EUR/USD spent a long time building a correction, allowing us now to expect a resumption of the upward trend that began back in January. Therefore, regardless of the news background, I continue to expect euro appreciation. A downward pullback may occur this week, which could be interpreted as an internal corrective wave within wave 3 or c. This wave is taking on a fairly extended form and will likely develop into a five-wave structure. If this assumption is correct, we are currently building wave 3 within wave 3 or c.
Overall conclusions
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors weighing on the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 1.25 level. The current upward wave sequence is beginning to gain momentum, and there is reason to believe that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave sequence as part of the global wave 5. In that case, a rise toward the 1.25 level should be expected, as I have stated before.
On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear and understandable structures on charts rather than rigidly trying to label every single wave. At present, the upward structure does not raise any doubts.
Key principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often imply changes.
- If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
- There is no and never can be 100% certainty about market direction. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
