Yesterday's U.S. employment data served as a wake-up call for the American economy. According to the report, the number of employed persons declined in June for the first time in more than two years, driven by job losses in the services sector. This raises concerns about a more pronounced slowdown in labor market growth. This negative trend certainly warrants close attention. The services sector—long a driving force of the U.S. economy—is showing signs of vulnerability. Job cuts in this area may signal deeper problems that could affect other industries as well.

It is important to remember that the labor market is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. A slowdown can lead to reduced consumer spending, lower investment, and a general deterioration in economic outlook. However, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions. Further data must be awaited and analyzed in the broader economic context.

According to ADP, private sector employment fell by 33,000 last month following a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May. "While layoffs remain rare, hesitancy in hiring and reluctance to replace departing employees led to job losses last month," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

Although the ADP report is not intended to forecast the government's official June payroll figures—due today—economists at Wells Fargo & Co. and Evercore ISI reacted to the unexpectedly weak data by revising down their estimates for economic and labor market growth. The median forecast in the survey calls for an increase of 110,000, which would mark the smallest gain in four months.

It is clear that employers have become increasingly cautious about the impact of the Trump administration's trade policy, doubling down on cost-cutting efforts. Companies are now focused on aligning headcount more closely with the pace of economic activity, which has slowed this year.

According to ADP, average wage growth over the past three months slowed to 18,700 in May, the weakest figure since the start of the pandemic. Other data suggest that unemployed individuals are taking longer to find new jobs, while figures from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas show that June hiring plans were the second weakest since 2004. According to the Conference Board, the share of consumers who reported plentiful job availability in June fell to its lowest level in four years.

Despite signs of weakness, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated earlier this week that the labor market remains stable. Fed officials have so far refrained from cutting interest rates this year, preferring to wait and assess the impact of tariffs on inflation.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD

Currently, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1825 level. Only then will a test of 1.1866 become possible. From there, the pair could attempt to reach 1.1903, though doing so without support from major market participants will be challenging. The furthest upward target is the 1.1935 high. If the instrument declines, significant buying interest is expected only around 1.1780. If no support emerges there, it may be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1750 low or consider opening long positions from the 1.1710 level.

Technical Outlook: GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to break above the nearest resistance at 1.3660 to open the way toward 1.3705, though overcoming that level will likely prove difficult. The furthest upward target stands at the 1.3746 level. In the event of a decline, bears will aim to regain control at 1.3610. If they succeed, breaking below that range could deal a significant blow to the bulls and drive GBP/USD down toward the 1.3565 low, with a possible extension to 1.3530.