Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 144.59 occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential.

In the second half of the day, the direction of the USD/JPY pair will be determined by the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and the changes in consumer income and spending. Investors and analysts around the world will closely monitor these key economic indicators to assess the state of the U.S. economy and forecast the Federal Reserve's future actions. A rise in the index could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged for a longer period, which typically strengthens the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected index may weaken the dollar. An increase in consumer spending signals a strong economy and consumer confidence, while a decline may indicate economic concerns. If income grows faster than spending, it may suggest increased savings, which can have a negative impact on economic growth.

Apart from macroeconomic data, close attention should also be paid to statements from Federal Reserve officials. Speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack may shed light on internal discussions and potential policy actions. While the central bank's stance on inflation and interest rates appears well-defined, their remarks could reveal new insights or adjustments.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point near 144.85 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 145.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 145.59, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rally in the pair today is only likely if the data is strong. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.21 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward 144.85 and 145.59 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakdown of the 144.21 level (red line on the chart), which could result in a quick drop in the pair. The main bearish target will be 143.34, where I will exit shorts and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure will likely resume if the data disappoints. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.85 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 144.21 and 143.34 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Beginner traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can result in a rapid loss of your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.