Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Only a few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. In the Eurozone, we'll see entirely secondary economic sentiment indexes from the ZEW Institute. In the UK, the macro calendar is empty. In the U.S., we have relatively important reports on industrial production and retail sales. We expect some market reaction if the actual data diverges from forecasts—but what difference would a 50-pip move up or down make at this point? Even if the macro backdrop briefly supports the dollar, it might rise—only for Donald Trump to come out the next day and announce new tariffs against the Eurozone or China.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no key fundamental events scheduled for Tuesday. No major speeches are anticipated, though important statements could still emerge throughout the day. Trump has already stated that the U.S. did not participate in the strikes on Iran, but that hardly matters—everyone knows that America supports Israel. The renewed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is no longer providing support to the U.S. dollar (as it once did).

We believe the market continues to focus solely on the trade war, with no signs of resolution in sight. Other key issues include mass unrest in the U.S., Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," the lack or presence of progress in trade talks with 75 countries, and the introduction or increase of tariffs. The dollar might have drawn support from the Israel-Iran confrontation, in which the U.S. is directly involved, but even that wasn't enough to convince traders to buy the greenback last Friday.

Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to move relatively calmly, as no major news is expected. However, new strikes between Israel and Iran could trigger another dollar sell-off. During the U.S. trading session, the market is expected to react to reports on industrial production and retail sales in the United States.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.