Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test at the 1.1438 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. However, after a 10-pip rise, pressure on the pair returned.

Disappointing U.S. manufacturing sector ISM data prompted a reassessment of the dollar's strength and the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Traders began to anticipate a higher likelihood of upcoming interest rate cuts, which negatively affected the dollar, a currency traditionally sensitive to changes in rate forecasts. Nevertheless, it's worth considering that the euro's strengthening could be short-lived and simply a technical impulse typical at the start of a new month. The economic outlook and forecasts for the Eurozone remain uncertain due to Trump's tariffs.

In the first half of the day, Eurozone CPI data for May—the key inflation indicator—and the unemployment rate will be published today. Market participants will closely scrutinize these economic indicators as they provide valuable insight into the current state of the European economy and how the European Central Bank may conduct its monetary policy going forward—especially given that the ECB may conclude its rate-cutting cycle this Thursday. If CPI comes in higher than expected, it could increase pressure on the ECB to take a tougher stance, supporting the euro. Conversely, a lower CPI could weaken arguments for maintaining rates and negatively impact the euro.

The unemployment rate also plays a significant role. A decrease points to labor market improvement and suggests the Eurozone economy's resilience to external shocks. Conversely, an increase could raise concerns about slowing economic growth and lead to euro weakness.

Thus, today's inflation and unemployment data from the Eurozone are likely to significantly impact the euro. Investors will closely watch these figures to assess the prospects for the European economy and the ECB's potential actions. Any unexpected deviations from forecasts could cause significant volatility in the currency markets.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1429 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1464. At 1.1464, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. It's important to rely on positive data.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I plan to buy the euro today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold area and the pair tests 1.1410 twice consecutively. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to 1.1429 and 1.1464 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1410 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1380, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip move from the level. Pressure on the pair may return if there's a sharp drop in inflation.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1429 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1410 and 1.1380 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.