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02.06.2025 12:52 AM
Euro: Weekly Preview
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The euro continues to experience no issues in its current trajectory. I would even say it hasn't had such a good period in quite a long time. Most importantly, this wasn't driven by strong economic growth in the Eurozone or high European Central Bank rates — it was caused by the total collapse of the U.S. dollar, which had been appreciating for more than 10 years before Donald Trump came to power. Once upon a time, the euro traded at $1.60.

But that's in the past — we should focus on the upcoming week. It will be important in every respect. First, over the weekend, it was reported that Donald Trump has introduced yet another round of tariff hikes. Second, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting. Third, key U.S. labor market and unemployment reports will be released. I've only listed the most important events; there will also be secondary ones, but the market is so overloaded with news right now that they hardly matter.

We will discuss the tariff hikes and U.S. data separately, but for now, let's look at possible scenarios for the ECB meeting. In reality, there are very few scenarios. No one doubts that the central bank will cut all three key rates again, marking the eighth round of monetary policy easing. If not for Trump's policies, the euro would be plunging, as the Federal Reserve has barely touched its rates while the ECB has been actively cutting. Moreover, the Fed may not conduct any easing rounds until the end of the year. If inflation spikes to 4% or 5% due to Trump's tariffs, the FOMC might forgo any easing.

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However, European interest rates have approached "neutral" levels, so the easing cycle could soon end. This event carries little significance for the euro, just like every rate cut. Even if demand for the euro drops because of rate cuts, demand for the dollar is falling much faster, so overall, the euro continues to rise. The ECB might conduct one or two more rounds of easing by year-end to stimulate the economy before Trump's tariffs take full effect. But again, the most significant "bearish" factor for any currency currently does not apply to the euro.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Thus, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% of the Fibonacci extension. It should be remembered that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

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Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that don't fit neatly into any wave pattern or technical analysis. However, the current working scenario and wave structure remain intact. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is ongoing, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market shows no desire to reverse the trend at this point.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring unexpected changes.
  2. If you're not confident in the market situation, it's better not to enter.
  3. Absolute certainty in the market's direction does not and cannot exist. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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