In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1416 level as a key area for making trading decisions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. After a rise and a false breakout near 1.1416, an entry point for selling the euro emerged, resulting in a 25-point drop. The technical outlook remained unchanged for the second half of the day.

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro quickly gave up its gains, which had been driven by Trump's announcement of an extension to the pause on additional tariffs against the EU. Apparently, traders are skeptical that a deal will be reached, suspecting that the EU is simply stalling.

Unfortunately, no economic data is scheduled for the second half of the day, so high volatility is unlikely. If the euro declines, focus will shift to defending the 1.1374 support level, which was not properly tested earlier in the day. A false breakout would be a reason to buy EUR/USD with the expectation of a rebound and a return to 1.1416.

A breakout and retest of this range would confirm the entry point, with a target at 1.1453. The furthest upward target would be 1.1490, where I plan to lock in profits. If EUR/USD falls and there's no buying interest around 1.1374, the pressure on the pair will increase, potentially dragging it down to 1.1334. Only after a false breakout at this level will I consider buying the euro. Otherwise, I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.1300, aiming for a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers reappeared and prevented a continuation of the bullish trend seen during the Asian session. If the euro rises in the second half of the day, bears will once again need to prove themselves at the 1.1416 level. A false breakout there, similar to the morning setup, would be a signal to enter short positions targeting 1.1374. A break and consolidation below this area would be a suitable sell signal targeting 1.1334, where the moving averages currently support the bulls.

The furthest target will be 1.1300, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD continues to rise in the second half of the day and bears remain passive at 1.1416 (which is unlikely), buyers could push the pair higher toward 1.1453. I will only sell there if the pair fails to consolidate above that level. Otherwise, I plan to open shorts on a rebound from 1.1490, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

COT (Commitment of Traders) Report – April 29:

The latest report showed a rise in long positions and a decline in short positions. While the ECB's ongoing rate-cutting path remains a limiting factor for euro bulls, the upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged—supporting the U.S. dollar. Long non-commercial positions rose by 183, to 196,388. Short non-commercial positions dropped by 10,586, to 120,591. As a result, the net long position increased by 9,285.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is occurring above the 30- and 50-period MAs, indicating continued euro strength.Note: The moving average settings are based on the H1 (hourly) chart and may differ from daily chart (D1) interpretations.

Bollinger Bands: If the pair declines, the lower band near 1.1334 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Smooths price fluctuations to identify trend direction.
  • 50-period MA (yellow)
  • 30-period MA (green)
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA – period 12
  • Slow EMA – period 26
  • Signal line (SMA) – period 9
• Bollinger Bands: Volatility indicator (period – 20)
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators like retail traders, hedge funds, and institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between long and short positions.