Top.Mail.Ru
empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
20.05.2025 09:11 AM
The Market Ignores Warning Signs
Open trading account Open demo account

When a crowd identifies a leader, it relentlessly pushes forward, clearing everything in its way. Retail investors heeded Morgan Stanley's call to "buy the dip" and began snapping up U.S. stocks with renewed vigor. As a result, their net long positions on May 19 surpassed $4 billion for the first time in history. The market turned a deaf ear to the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and continues to hear only what it wants to.

Logically, Moody's actions should have served as a warning signal of overbought conditions in the S&P 500. The U.S.'s fiscal issues could worsen significantly if Congress extends the 2017 tax cuts without reducing spending. This could trigger a surge in Treasury yields, increasing corporate costs, damaging earnings, and pulling down global stock indices. Currently, the increase in bond yields doesn't appear to be a concern for most people.

MSCI Index vs. U.S. Treasury Yields Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Nor does the Federal Reserve's unwillingness to act. According to New York Fed President John Williams, the central bank is unlikely to take a clear position on the economic consequences of White House policy before June or July. The market shouldn't expect a rate cut before September, a view echoed by the futures market, which now sees only two rate cuts by year-end. Normally, this would disappoint U.S. equities—not this time. JP Morgan has stated that even a global recession might not prompt central banks to help; they've become too complacent.

HSBC claims the U.S.–China truce has changed the game, fueling a long-term surge in risk appetite. Wells Fargo agrees, advising investors to ditch emerging market equities in favor of their American counterparts. The global economy may recover by year's end, but for now, it's time to "Buy America."

S&P 500 vs. Emerging Markets Index Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

If a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating didn't rattle the market, something worse may be needed to trigger a correction in the S&P 500. Retail investors are inflating a bubble in the broad market index, and when it bursts, the decline could be swift. JP Morgan estimates that a credit crisis and falling earnings forecasts could cause U.S. equities to drop by 10%.

This image is no longer relevant

But would that even be enough to reintroduce fear? If Moody's and the Fed can't change the crowd's mind, can private companies?

Technical Outlook

On the daily chart of the S&P 500, bulls have managed to keep the index above the key 5900 level, preserving long positions. It makes sense to hold those longs for now, targeting 6045 and 6120. A stop-loss is recommended near the cluster of pivot levels at 5900.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
The Market Realized That Money Isn't Everything Which is stronger — money or power? The answer to this question became clear very quickly. In the conflict between the most influential president in the world, Donald Trump
Marek Petkovich
00:07 2025-06-09 +02:00
1030
Fundamental analysis
Bitcoin Heads for Conflict The biggest surprise of June has been the divergence between U.S. stock indices and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 and Bitcoin are typically considered risk assets, historically moving hand in hand
Marek Petkovich
00:07 2025-06-09 +02:00
1015
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Realized That Money Isn't Everything

Which is stronger — money or power? The answer to this question became clear very quickly. In the conflict between the most influential president in the world, Donald Trump
Marek Petkovich 00:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Bitcoin Heads for Conflict

The biggest surprise of June has been the divergence between U.S. stock indices and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 and Bitcoin are typically considered risk assets, historically moving hand in hand
Marek Petkovich 00:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold maintains a positive tone; however, bulls are acting cautiously, preferring to refrain from aggressive buying ahead of the release of the important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report
Irina Yanina 15:30 2025-06-06 UTC+2

WTI. West Texas Intermediate. Traders Await NFP

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remain in the middle of a three-day range. Prices are supported by hopes for the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S
Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

ECB Meeting Results and Christine Lagarde's Press Conference

The euro responded with a significant rise following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates. But why did this happen? Let's break it down. The key reason behind the euro's
Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 6th? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A fairly large number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but most of them will not interest traders. For example, the report on industrial production
Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for the GBP/USD pair on June 6, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, trading overall calmly and without any rush. There was no news for either the British pound or the U.S. dollar
Paolo Greco 05:47 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Thursday, even when the results of the ECB meeting became known. It should be noted that there was no intrigue
Paolo Greco 05:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

The EU Economy Will Not Suffer, According to Lagarde

Today, a meeting of the European regulator took place, where the obvious and expected decision was made to lower all three interest rates by another 25 basis points. The decision
Chin Zhao 02:56 2025-06-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Thursday, the Japanese yen maintained stability, allowing the USD/JPY pair to hold above the key 143.00 level amid a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 23:00 2025-06-18 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 5-9, 2025: sell below $3,387 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)
06:36 2025-06-05
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-06-20 UTC--5
Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 6-10, 2025: buy above 1.1080 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)
07:04 2025-06-06
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-06-20 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 6-10, 2025: buy above $3,365 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)
07:01 2025-06-06
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-06-18 UTC--5
Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 5-9, 2025: sell below 1.1474 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)
06:38 2025-06-05
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-10 UTC--5
The Market Finds Good in the Bad
09:20 2025-06-05
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.