Top.Mail.Ru
empty
19.05.2025 12:35 AM
British Pound. Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The British news background for the upcoming week will be about the same low significance as the European one. However, one report in the UK cannot be ignored—the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April.

Inflation used to carry considerable weight for central banks, but over the past few months, it has significantly decreased in the UK, the EU, and the US. As a result, its influence on monetary policy decisions has also diminished. However, UK inflation is expected to spike sharply this time and reach 3.3% in May. Recall that at the last meeting, the Bank of England cut interest rates for the second time this year, and now, inflation might accelerate substantially. If that happens, the next round of monetary easing may not occur for quite some time.

The most obvious outcome is a new upward move. The pound is forming a corrective wave within an upward trend segment, so I do not expect strong appreciation of the US dollar under any circumstances. Rising inflation would mean that monetary easing could be placed on an extended pause. The market continues to sell the dollar more enthusiastically than the pound. Therefore, assuming there is a good chance of seeing another rise in GBP/USD next week is reasonable.

Among other economic data, it's worth noting two speeches by the Bank of England's Chief Economist, Huw Pill, who may clarify the central bank's future actions in light of strong inflation growth. Business activity indices for May's services and manufacturing sectors will also be released, though both are likely to remain below the 50.0 mark. A retail sales report will be published on Friday, but its importance is no greater than that of the business activity indices. Therefore, I believe the most noteworthy events will be Huw Pill's speeches and the inflation report.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis, EUR/USD continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on the stance and actions of the U.S. president—this must be constantly kept in mind. Wave 3 of the upward segment has begun forming, and its targets may stretch up to the 1.25 level. Achieving these targets will depend solely on Trump's policies. At present, wave 2 within wave 3 may be considered complete. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci level. It's important to remember that a de-escalation in the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but there are no wave-based signs of a reversal at the moment.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD has shifted. We are now dealing with an impulsive upward segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may still face many shocks and reversals that defy wave logic and most forms of technical analysis. The upward wave 3 continues to form, with nearby targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, as the market does not yet desire to reverse the trend again.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to trade and often require adjustments.
  2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction is never possible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold maintains a positive tone; however, bulls are acting cautiously, preferring to refrain from aggressive buying ahead of the release of the important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report

Irina Yanina 15:30 2025-06-06 UTC+2

WTI. West Texas Intermediate. Traders Await NFP

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remain in the middle of a three-day range. Prices are supported by hopes for the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

ECB Meeting Results and Christine Lagarde's Press Conference

The euro responded with a significant rise following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates. But why did this happen? Let's break it down. The key reason behind the euro's

Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 6th? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A fairly large number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but most of them will not interest traders. For example, the report on industrial production

Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for the GBP/USD pair on June 6, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, trading overall calmly and without any rush. There was no news for either the British pound or the U.S. dollar

Paolo Greco 05:47 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Thursday, even when the results of the ECB meeting became known. It should be noted that there was no intrigue

Paolo Greco 05:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

The EU Economy Will Not Suffer, According to Lagarde

Today, a meeting of the European regulator took place, where the obvious and expected decision was made to lower all three interest rates by another 25 basis points. The decision

Chin Zhao 02:56 2025-06-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Thursday, the Japanese yen maintained stability, allowing the USD/JPY pair to hold above the key 143.00 level amid a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today the AUD/JPY pair is attracting new buyers. Recent Chinese data, including the private Caixin survey, showed a moderate acceleration in growth in China's services sector

Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair continues to decline. Fundamental factors support bearish sentiment, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward. Reports of a trade agreement between

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-06-05 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.