Top.Mail.Ru
empty
13.05.2025 11:01 AM
GBP/USD – May 13th: Unemployment in Britain Is Rising Again

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.3139 level on Monday, rebounded from it, and rose to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. A rebound from this level will support the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the 1.3085 and 1.3139 levels. A close above 1.3205 would allow expectations for a rise in the pound toward 1.3344.

This image is no longer relevant

Recently, the wave structure has been straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous wave's peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the "bullish" trend is transforming into a "bearish" one. The pound's decline is not yet strong enough to be called a trend, but over the past three months, even such declines have been rare. Bulls will struggle to push above 1.3425 without new statements from Donald Trump regarding tariff hikes or new import duties.

Monday's news backdrop once again favored the bears. The pound's decline began last week after the Bank of England cut interest rates, the FOMC held rates steady, the U.S. signed its first trade agreement with the UK, and reached a deal with China to reduce import tariffs.

These developments have supported the bears, so it's no surprise they launched a strong offensive. Today's UK unemployment report showed the rate rising to 4.5% in March (above forecasts). Employment rose by only 120,000 (below expectations), while wages rose by 5.5% (above forecasts). Among these, the unemployment figure is the most impactful—and it doesn't favor the pound. Therefore, the decline may continue. However, the bears can only attack with obvious support factors. If this favorable backdrop dries up, the pound's decline may stall indefinitely.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and is continuing its decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3118. No emerging divergences are currently present on any indicators. The ascending trend channel still points to a bullish trend. A bounce from 1.3118 would favor the pound and a potential return to growth toward 1.3435.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions rose by 3,320, while short positions decreased by 1,956. Bears have lost their edge. The gap between long and short positions now favors the bulls by 29,000: 94K vs. 65K.

Although downward potential for the pound remains, recent developments may trigger a longer-term market reversal. Over the past three months, long positions have increased from 65K to 94K, while shorts have dropped from 76K to 65K. Under Trump's leadership, faith in the dollar has been shaken, and COT reports show that traders aren't rushing to buy the greenback.

News Calendar for the UK and US

  • UK – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC)
  • UK – Change in Jobless Claims (06:00 UTC)
  • UK – Change in Average Earnings (06:00 UTC)
  • US – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)

Out of four economic releases scheduled for Tuesday, three have already been published. The remaining U.S. inflation report is expected to continue influencing trader sentiment throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Sales were possible earlier when the pair closed below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart and after two rejections from that same zone, targeting 1.3265 and 1.3205. All targets were surpassed. Today, selling is possible on a rebound from 1.3205 with targets at 1.3139 and 1.3085. Buying will be possible if the pair consolidates above 1.3205 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3344.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The pair is attempting to attract buyers, but spot prices remain close to a yearly low and appear vulnerable to further decline. The Canadian dollar is supported by reports

Irina Yanina 15:33 2025-06-06 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair continues to demonstrate stable positive dynamics. Spot prices remain near a three-week high. Factors supporting the rise of EUR/JPY include disappointing data on household spending in Japan

Irina Yanina 11:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement but made two rebounds from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1454, suggesting a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar

Samir Klishi 11:09 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 6, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rose to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the U.S. dollar. A decline began

Samir Klishi 11:03 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forex forecast 06/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, Oil, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:51 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

Yesterday, the ECB as expected cut key rates by a quarter point, bringing the refinancing rate to 2.15%. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that rates have

Laurie Bailey 08:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 6, 2025

GBP/USD Amid yesterday's brief optimism over the ECB's decision to cut rates and nearly complete the easing cycle, the pound almost reached the target level of 1.3635. Today began neutrally

Laurie Bailey 08:17 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 6, 2025

As of this morning, the USD/JPY pair has found itself in a completely dual situation, with an equal likelihood of both growth and decline. Indicators suggesting growth include the price

Laurie Bailey 08:13 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 6-10, 2025: buy above 1.1080 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

The eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe that if the euro falls below the 6/8 Murray level in the coming hours, it will be seen

Dimitrios Zappas 07:04 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 6-10, 2025: buy above $3,365 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

On the other hand, gold is expected to undergo a technical correction. On May 30, it left a gap around 3,284, and if it consolidates below 3,350, it could likely

Dimitrios Zappas 07:01 2025-06-06 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.