Bitcoin's inability to surpass the psychologically significant $100,000 mark has been met with resilience by BTC/USD bulls. They hold onto the belief that "if not today, then tomorrow, this level will yield!" However, the significance of this failure cannot be overlooked. In 2024, the digital asset saw a surge due to strong demand for ETFs and the anticipation of initiatives in the crypto sector from Donald Trump. Nonetheless, without the concurrent rallies in U.S. stock indexes, Bitcoin's performance would likely have been much less impressive. With the S&P 500 now facing a potential correction, Bitcoin is starting to exhibit signs of weakness.

Last year, the U.S. economy surprised many with its resilience against the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary tightening in decades (2022–2023). Yet, in 2025, it appears to have reached its limits. Further fiscal stimulus from Trump could risk fueling inflation. Unsurprisingly, Treasury bonds are being sold off, which drives up yields, pushes the S&P 500 downward, and leads to capital outflows from Bitcoin-focused ETFs. On January 8, Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $83 million, marking their second-worst day in history.

Capital Flow Trends in Bitcoin ETFs

Investors are becoming increasingly aware of the declining global risk appetite. Just a few days into the new year, the market has already faced shocks such as terrorist attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas, tariff disputes involving Donald Trump, and the looming threat of a debt crisis in Britain. As money moves away from risky assets, Bitcoin has also suffered.

Crypto enthusiasts are pointing to the narrowing premiums between the U.S.-based Coinbase exchange and China's Binance as a sign of rising interest in digital assets in the U.S. However, this trend may actually reflect a decline in demand for cryptocurrencies in Asia.

Price Spread Trends on Different Cryptocurrency Exchanges

BTC/USD bulls are still hoping that Donald Trump will fulfill his campaign promises, which they believe could create a golden age for cryptocurrencies. However, many of Trump's proposals are unlikely to materialize. For example, technology does not allow for all remaining bitcoins to be mined solely within the U.S., as he has suggested. His plan to establish a strategic reserve could increase the budget deficit, inflate the national debt, and accelerate inflation, which is unlikely to be well-received by the White House.

There remains some hope for regulatory leadership that favors cryptocurrency and the integration of tokens into the banking system. However, Bitcoin enthusiasts clearly expect even more. This disappointment is evident in the unwinding of long positions and profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, the BTC/USD daily chart is showing a 1-2-3 reversal pattern forming. A breakout below the local low at $91,400 (Point 2), or the bulls' failure to push prices back above the moving averages and the pivot level at $97,600, would create grounds for selling.