Top.Mail.Ru
empty
13.08.2020 09:26 AM
Gold - correction or reversal?

This image is no longer relevant

The COT report published last Friday showed that gold futures diverged in price, reaching historic highs, with which the Open Interest indicators are 100,000 contracts below the levels reached this spring. Among other things, speculators, who are the main driving force behind the growth of gold and other commodity assets, for seven weeks, maintained long positions at constant values, in the range of 210-220 thousand contracts, which was a fundamental discrepancy. Hence, the market turned out to be overheated, in which a price drop is not long in coming.

This image is no longer relevant

Figure 1: Technical picture of gold, Daily TF

Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that the fall in gold is still a correction, in which the quote crossed the 20 MA (moving average line) from top to bottom and stopped at $ 1860, where the 50 MA is located. In other words, gold fell below the average monthly value, but remained above the average quarterly price level (Figure 1). This suggests that the quote changed direction from up to down in the four-hour timeframe, but remained in an upward direction in the daily TF.

Nonetheless, traders base their transactions depending on which time frame he will enter the market. If it is on the daily TF, buy deals are the most recommended, but before doing this, it is necessary to determine the target level and profit/loss ratio of each transaction in order to avoid significant damage to the deposit.

Thus, looking at the chart again, it is clear that the level which traders should close their position is $ 1788, the price level below the midline of the 100 MA. This is because the 100 MA shows the direction of the trend over the previous six months, with which if the price falls below this value, it will most likely mean that the trend has finally changed its direction from upward to downward, where buy deals are then unprofitable.

As for the approximate target level, it can be calculated by the difference between the current price and the level of the expected stop order: $ 1935 - $ 1788 = $ 147, which can be rounded off to 150. General rules assume a profit and risk ratio of at least 2 to 1, due to which winning trade must close two losing ones. Thus, the target profit is now $ 300, which for our example would be $ 2235.

Meanwhile, if trades are set in lower time frames, positions should be reduced by half from the normal value. Risks should also always be controlled, as to avoid losing profit.

Good luck and have a good day!

Daniel Adler,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 20, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1454, bounced off it, and turned in favor of the euro. It is still too early to conclude

Samir Klishi 11:43 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 20, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated below the support zone of 1.3425–1.3444, which suggested the potential for further decline in the British pound. However, following the Bank

Samir Klishi 11:30 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Forex forecast 20/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:25 2025-06-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 20, 2025

EUR/USD In the past 24 hours since the uneventful Federal Reserve meeting, the markets have shed their anxiety and resumed the broader risk-on trend. Even government bond yields are easing

Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for June 20, 2025

AUD/USD Yesterday, the Australian dollar pierced the MACD line with a lower shadow and nearly tested the support level at 0.6446. This morning's price movement above the MACD line offers

Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 20, 2025

GBP/USD On Wednesday and Thursday, the British pound tried to consolidate below the support level 1.3433 but was unsuccessful. The price is rising steadily, aiming to break above the MACD

Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 19-22, 2025: sell below $3,390 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the XAU/USD is trading around 3,370, below the 21 SMA under bearish pressure. We believe a technical rebound could occur in the coming hours

Dimitrios Zappas 15:14 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 19-22, 2025: sell below 1.1535 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The outlook remains negative for the euro, as rising oil prices could pressure the European currency. In turn, we could expect EUR/USD to reach the 6/8 Murray level at 1.1230

Dimitrios Zappas 14:57 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Forex forecast 19/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 13:52 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement EUR/GBP Cross Currency Pairs, Thursday June 19, 2025.

With the movement of the EUR/GBP price on its 4-hour chart moving above the WMA (21) which has a slope that is going upwards and the appearance of convergence between

Arief Makmur 11:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.