Despite the active decline of the euro in recent days, the overall picture in the COT report on EURO FX indicates bullish sentiment.

According to the COT report on EURO FX (CME) as of May 12, 2026:

Open Interest (OI): 829,377 contracts (each contract is €125,000). Increased by +13,435 over the week.

Non-Commercial Traders — Speculators

Long: 224,002 (27.0% of OI) — increased by +6,528

Short: 183,802 (22.2% of OI) — decreased by -1,470

Spreads: 32,115 (3.9% of OI) — increased by +2,689

Speculators significantly dominate the longs, indicating a net bullish position. This suggests that large funds and managers are betting on the long-term rise of the euro.

Commercial Traders — Hedgers

Long: 485,382 (58.5% of OI) — increased by +4,496

Short: 564,436 (68.1% of OI) — increased by +10,171

Hedgers traditionally take positions against the trend — they have a net short position, meaning they are hedging against the risk of a rising euro by selling futures. Number of traders: 142 long / 99 short.

Total

Long: 741,499 (89.4% of OI)

Short: 780,353 (94.1% of OI)

Non-Reportable — Small Traders

Long: 87,878 (10.6% of OI) — slightly decreased (-278)

Short: 49,024 (5.9% of OI) — increased by +2,045

Small participants also hold a net long position on the euro.

The overall picture of the COT report for the euro remains bullish: speculators are building up longs (+6,528 over the week) while simultaneously reducing shorts (-1,470), forming an expanding net long position. Small traders are moving in the same direction. The increase in total open interest by +13,435 contracts, combined with aggressive accumulation of longs by speculators, signals a strengthening bullish consensus in the market—this structure historically precedes a continuation of upward movement in EUR/USD if the fundamental background doesn't change sharply.

However, the fundamental background remains the key risk. The conflict in the Middle East has turned into a global event in the field of energy security: disruption of shipping, a sharp decrease in LNG availability, and rising risk premiums for oil, gas, and electricity. The European Central Bank warned in the aftermath of the last meeting that a protracted war in the Middle East could lead to a more significant and prolonged rise in energy prices than expected, further driving inflation in the Eurozone. This puts the central bank in a very uncomfortable position: fighting inflation while maintaining support for a weakening economy.

All this suggests that the market is currently operating in a wait-and-see mode, where fundamental data takes a back seat to headlines from the Middle East. At the same time, a significant portion of the conflict's resolution is already priced in, and any sudden escalation could trigger a sharp drop in EUR/USD.