Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3449 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had advanced significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I did not make a purchase.

The first direct negotiations between the United States and Iran, aimed at paving the way for de-escalation and resolving urgent issues, unexpectedly failed, putting diplomatic efforts at an impasse. The result of this important but unsuccessful phase has been the absence of any progress on key points, casting doubt on the prospects for swift resolution. All of this led to a sharp decline in the pound and a strengthening of the dollar. Clearly, new, more sophisticated, and possibly long-term approaches will be required to overcome existing contradictions.

Given the lack of significant reporting from the United Kingdom today, the prospects for substantial fluctuations in the currency market appear quite murky. The shortage of fresh economic indicators that could affect traders' sentiments is likely to maintain the trend of a weakening British pound against the US dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3415 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3444 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3444, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pound today can only be expected within the framework of the channel. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3402 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3415 and 1.3444 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level at 1.3402 (red line on the chart) is reached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3381 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3415 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease towards the opposite levels of 1.3402 and 1.3381 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.