Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1533 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1515.

In the second half of the day, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is expected. These data will provide insight into how Americans perceive the current state of the economy and their future prospects. This indicator is considered one of the key measures of consumer spending, which significantly affects GDP growth rates. Positive results may strengthen the dollar. Along with the sentiment index, inflation expectations data will also be released. Consumers' expectations of future inflation—especially now, after a sharp rise in fuel prices in the U.S.—directly influence their spending habits and long-term investments. In turn, this may push the Federal Reserve toward more decisive monetary tightening measures.

In addition, public speeches by FOMC representatives Thomas Barkin and Mary Daly are scheduled for the second half of the day. Their statements may clarify the committee's current stance on the economy, inflation, and future monetary policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1537 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1571. At 1.1571, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Growth in the euro today can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1515 level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1537 and 1.1571 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1515 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1470, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1537 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1515 and 1.1470 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.