The new Supreme Leader of Iran, following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is his son Mojtaba Khamenei. A new wave of protests has swept Iran against the new leader, who will likely adhere to the same party policies as his father. It is not just about Mojtaba himself; it is about the party that has chosen Khamenei Jr. as its spiritual leader. Therefore, no matter how much Trump promises to eliminate the new Ayatollah, Iran's policies will not change.

What is known about Mojtaba Khamenei? For many years, he worked in his father's government, and thus he is well aware of how to run a country, defend it against external threats, and handle internal protests. It is worth noting that Iran has faced constant protests and strikes over the last 10 years. Only in the past few days have protests quieted due to the war, but as soon as Ali Khamenei's son became the new leader, people took to the streets again.

Over the past decade, Iran has experienced a sharp decline in living standards, which were already low despite its large oil reserves. In Iranian cities, electricity is available for only a few hours a day, there is a constant shortage of drinking water, and levels of education, infrastructure, healthcare, and industries unrelated to armament and nuclear energy are low. Iranians' savings are rapidly diminishing as the Iranian rial continues to depreciate. Even this low level of living and development has steadily worsened in recent years. Ultimately, the Iranian people are simply tired of living in extreme poverty, waging wars with many countries in the region, and facing the world's strongest military and economic power, the United States. Iranians do not understand why their country cannot follow the path of the UAE or Qatar, which share similar beliefs and religions, yet are not at war with anyone.

As a result of the U.S.-Israeli strike, not only did Mojtaba's father die, but also his wife, mother, and son. Therefore, it is already reasonable to talk about blood vengeance against the U.S. and Israel. Ali Khamenei held a defensive position: if we are not attacked, we do not attack. Mojtaba Khamenei may shift to an offensive stance. Naturally, at this time, it is extremely difficult to predict what this attack may be, but as last week has shown, it is not necessary to attack with missiles. It is enough to simply block the Strait of Hormuz for the whole world to be hit by a wave of economic and energy shock.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's politics and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment could reach the 25 figure. At present, I believe the instrument remains within the global wave 5, and thus I expect price increases in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e may be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now reasonable to consider purchases at targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The global wave 5 can take on a much more extended form than it currently exhibits. I believe that the formation of a corrective set of waves may soon be completed (or may have already been completed), after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can currently recommend looking for opportunities to buy with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, as the upward trend does not appear to be complete.

Key Takeaways from My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in market direction. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.