Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1857 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to turn down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 10 pips.

Due to the holiday in the U.S., there was no significant spike in volatility in the second half of the day. Today, during the European session, the January consumer price index (CPI) for Germany is expected. This indicator will serve as a key metric for inflation trends in the Eurozone's largest economy. If the data exceed forecasts, it will strengthen expectations of a prolonged European Central Bank policy of keeping interest rates unchanged. Conversely, weaker figures will fuel speculation about monetary easing, though this is unlikely.

Additionally, the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are being released today. Strongly projected growth figures will contribute to the strengthening of the euro in the first half of the day. Overall, the combination of these indicators will set the tone for the trading session.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1855 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1879. At the level of 1.1879, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1837 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal in the market. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1855 and 1.1879.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1837 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1806, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return if data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1855 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1837 and 1.1806.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.