Bitcoin is trading around $85,300 and once again stalled near $87,000 — a level it failed to clear last Sunday. Spot Bitcoin funds returned to outflows of roughly $89.8 million. Ethereum is holding near $2,716. Against this backdrop, the CFTC unveiled two regulatory regimes for the US crypto market, but the price action largely ignored the news.

Equally important is what the rules will not do. They will not force crypto assets to trade only on CFTC-regulated platforms — doing that would require an act of Congress. They also do not preempt state regulation of ordinary spot markets.

The political context is clear. The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in September, and regulators are moving forward on their own using existing powers. CFTC Chair Michael Selig emphasized that the era of regulating by enforcement is over — a direct rebuke to Gary Gensler's approach of pushing exchanges to register as securities venues. The likely winners, in my view, are US-registered exchanges, which would gain a unified federal regime and the right to offer retail leverage, and FCM brokers, who would become mandatory intermediaries. Offshore venues would lose if some leveraged volume returns to the US, and retail traders could be losers too, since easy leverage often ends in liquidations. Note that last Friday the SEC approved the first 3x Bitcoin and Ethereum products — both regulators effectively legalized leveraged exposure within the same week.

I do not expect this announcement to move the price in the coming days. Final rules are far off: first comments, then a draft, then a final rule — and the regulatory gap for spot remains.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin

Buyers are targeting a return to $87,000, which would open a path to $89,000 and then toward $92,000 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $84,900. A fall below that area could quickly push BTC toward $83,000. The next extended downside target would be around $81,300.

Technical outlook for Ethereum

A clear close above $2,739 opens the way to $2,793. The next extended target is around $2,872 — a break above which would strengthen bullish sentiment and restore buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,668. A return below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,578. The next extended downside target would be around $2,486.

Chart notes:

• Red levels denote support and resistance points where price is expected to either stall or accelerate.
• Green shows the 50-day moving average.
• Blue shows the 100-day moving average.
• Light green shows the 200-day moving average.

Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.