Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.37 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero level, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair never actually fell.

In the second half of the day, market participants' attention will likely focus on two key events. First, unemployment statistics are one of the most important indicators reflecting the state of the labor market. Traditionally, a decrease in initial claims signals an improving economic situation and expanding employment. Conversely, an increase in this figure may indicate negative trends, causing heightened trader nervousness and potentially triggering dollar sell-offs.

The second key event will be the speech by Lisa D. Cook. As representatives of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC members have direct influence on U.S. monetary policy. Particular interest will be paid to any signals regarding future changes in the key interest rate. Cook's statements may shed light on her view of the current situation in the Middle East and its impact on future price growth. Concerns about this may lead to a stronger dollar and a weaker yen.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 159.57 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 159.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.84, I will exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point move downward from that level). Expecting the pair to rise today is reasonable if U.S. data is strong. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.43 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. The rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 159.57 and 159.84.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 159.43 is broken (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.13, where I will exit short positions and simultaneously open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point move upward from that level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.57 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 159.43 and 159.13.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested level for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested level for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.