Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1485 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 15 points.

Despite disappointing ZEW data from Germany and the eurozone, the euro did not experience a significant decline. Traders seem to have avoided panic, possibly relying on other, more encouraging signals that may soon come from several central banks. A purely technical factor cannot be ruled out either—some large players may have started taking profits on short positions, which also supported the exchange rate.

Further attention will focus on U.S. weekly employment data from ADP, as well as pending home sales. Weak ADP data—even though it is weekly—along with a decline in pending home sales in the U.S., would put renewed pressure on the dollar and support the continuation of the upward trend in EUR/USD observed earlier in the day. A combined analysis of these two macroeconomic indicators will provide market participants with a more complete picture of the current state of the U.S. economy, allowing for more accurate adjustments to forecasts and investment strategies.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1524 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1570. At 1.1570, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1497 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1524 and 1.1570 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1497 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1458, where I intend to exit the market and open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1524 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1497 and 1.1458 can be expected.

Chart explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.