"50-50" – that's how Donald Trump assessed the chances of reaching a deal with Iran amid rumors that the parties have come closer to reaching a compromise. This indicates that the currency market remains at a crossroads: further events will either lead to increased demand for the safe dollar or a heightened interest in risk assets, including the euro.

Currently, the balance seems to tilt in favor of the de-escalation scenario. According to information from several influential media outlets, Washington and Tehran have indeed approached a preliminary agreement that could be a step toward a final resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict. If the published insider information is confirmed, EUR/USD buyers will once again find themselves "on horseback" and are likely to test the 17-figure boundary.

The probability of this scenario materializing is quite high, as not only anonymous sources in journalistic materials but also high-ranking American officials speak of a de-escalation. For instance, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported that "significant progress, although not final," has been made in negotiations with Iran. According to him, good news could be coming soon—"at least concerning the Strait of Hormuz."

According to Axios, the agreement reached includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire (with an option for a further extension), during which the strait will be reopened, allowing Iran to freely export oil. During the following two months, additional negotiations will take place between Washington and Iran regarding limits on Iran's nuclear program. The American side has also allegedly promised the Iranian leadership that it will unfreeze blocked funds—but only after Tehran makes tangible concessions. Sources indicate that an announcement about the deal could be made on Monday or even today (Sunday), "although it is not yet finalized and could fall through."

At the same time, the Iranian news agency Tasnim asserts that the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should be completely lifted within the next 30 days. This means that shipping traffic in the strait should return to pre-war levels within a month.

According to the Saudi channel Al Hadath, the preliminary agreement will be called the "Islamabad Declaration," with Pakistan announcing its signing without the presence of the negotiating parties. The next round of negotiations between the countries might take place on June 5.

Despite these encouraging insights, the intrigue surrounding the deal's conclusion persists.

First, neither Tehran nor Washington has officially confirmed that they are discussing the aforementioned memorandum. The American side is only providing veiled hints, whereas rumors about the deal being close have arisen several times in the past but were later denied.

Secondly, even if we rely on journalistic insights, there are still "warning signs." For example, according to Tasnim, disagreements between Iran and the U.S. over several points of the memorandum of understanding persist. In particular, Tehran allegedly refuses at this stage to make any decisions or actions regarding its nuclear program, insisting that negotiations on the nuclear issue be postponed until the war is over. Additionally, the agency quotes Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying that no decision regarding a peaceful deal will be made without the approval of the Supreme Leader and outside the framework of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran.

Another Iranian news agency, Fars News, denied Trump's statements that shipping routes would return to their pre-war status. According to sources from the agency, a possible resumption of navigation through the waterway "does not mean Tehran is abandoning its military claims to this strategically important point."

In other words, the intrigue remains, and the balance may tilt in one direction or another. Either the mediators will soon announce a framework agreement, or the situation will revert to a standstill, with the risk of military actions resuming. Depending on which way the "pendulum" swings, the movement vector for EUR/USD will be determined—either towards the boundaries of the 17 figure or to the base of the 15 figure.

All other fundamental factors will play a secondary role, despite the economic calendar for the upcoming week containing important releases for both the euro and the dollar. In particular, on Tuesday, the U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board will be published; on Thursday, the report on U.S. GDP growth (second estimate for the first quarter) and the core PCE index; and on Friday, data on inflation growth in Germany.

However, all these macroeconomic reports will remain overshadowed by the geopolitical agenda. The movement vector for EUR/USD will primarily be determined by the prospects of concluding the "Islamabad Declaration." At stake is peace in the Middle East, meaning the dynamics of demand for risk assets and the safe dollar will depend directly on the outcome of the negotiation process.