23.12.202511:29:53UTC+00Steel Rebar Set to Drop 7% in 2025

Steel rebar futures in China currently stand at CNY 3,085 per tonne, maintaining much of their decline from the three-month peak of CNY 3,118 reached earlier this December. The futures are poised to end the year approximately 7% lower, reflecting the diminished demand for ferrous metals. The National Bureau of Statistics' Construction Purchasing Managers' Index highlighted a fourth consecutive month of contraction in October, underscoring persistent struggles within the sector due to the ongoing property crisis in China, the world's largest consumer of steel rebar. Additionally, manufacturing activity has remained sluggish, further curtailing the demand for steel coils. This lackluster domestic demand has prompted mills to redirect their output towards international markets, leading to a 6.7% annual increase in steel exports as of November this year. However, the expected protectionist measures from significant buyers in Southeast Asia and Latin America have cast a shadow over next year's export prospects. In response to potential deflationary pressures, Beijing has hinted at imposing capacity restrictions on the production of finished ferrous metals. This policy shift has contributed to a 10.9% year-over-year drop in steel output, which fell to 70 million tons in November.