Analysis EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair again showed no willingness to move on Monday, and the macroeconomic backdrop was extremely weak. Therefore, the technical picture did not change over the course of the day. The pair remains between the Ichimoku lines, preserving a corrective bias. Recall that last week price broke the descending trendline. However, market movement is currently minimal, and the pair has not cleared Senkou Span B. Thus, traders can still expect further downward movement until a confirmed close above Senkou Span B. That said, moves this week may be muted. The first major event is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday; the ECB is almost certain to raise all three key rates, so the euro may begin to strengthen even before Thursday. Because the euro mostly declined over the past 2–3 weeks (presumably as a correction), the market could not price in ECB tightening in advance. Therefore, we expect renewed euro strength this week. Only US inflation on Friday could derail this view. As for Monday's economic items, the final Q2 eurozone GDP beat expectations, but the market barely reacted.

Technically, the pair ended the downtrend as evidenced by the trendline breach. However, Senkou Span B has not been overcome, so theoretically dollar strength could still resume. This week, the dollar's dynamics will again hinge on the inflation report due Friday. For the third consecutive week, the dollar's fate will be decided on the last trading day of the week.

On the 5-minute TF on Monday, no trading signals were generated. Volatility was low again, and price did not test any levels or lines.

COT report

The latest COT is dated September 1. On the weekly TF, it is clear that non-commercial traders' net position turned bearish and fell significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders trimmed euro exposure in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has, for a time, acted as the "reserve currency."

However, we still see no fundamental reasons for further dollar strengthening. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor expires, things will revert — and that window may already be closing. In the long term, the euro could fall to 1.08 (trendline), but the uptrend remains intact. After recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not approached that trendline much.

The red and blue COT lines indicate approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, Non-commercial longs rose by 4,500 while shorts fell by 6,900, so the net position increased by 11,400 contracts.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly TF, EUR/USD may begin a new upward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and has not improved, but that alone is insufficient to trigger a new strong-dollar rally. Kevin Warsh's remarks and the annual Nonfarms supported the dollar, but we see no strong grounds for optimism about the US currency. A clear break above Senkou Span B would open the way up for the euro.

For September 8 we highlight these trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837 — and the Ichimoku lines Senkou Span B (1.1639) and Kijun-sen (1.1604). Ichimoku lines may shift intraday and should be taken into account when determining signals. Move Stop Loss to breakeven if price moves 15 pips in the favorable direction to protect against false signals.

On Tuesday, the EU calendar is empty, and the US releases only the weekly ADP report, which has little relevance to traders. Thus, volatility may again be extremely low.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions with targets at 1.1604 and 1.1585 if price rebounds from Senkou Span B. A confirmed close above Senkou Span B would allow opening longs with targets at 1.1657–1.1665 and 1.1750–1.1760. Do not expect strong moves today.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.