Bitcoin has slumped more than 50% since last October and shows little intention to advance. On the 4?hour chart, occasional "bullish" patterns appear, but bullish moves are very weak and corrective. We believe the correction may be lengthy and complicated while the downtrend remains intact. Accordingly, we expect Bitcoin's decline to resume toward $57,500 and below.

The company called MicroStrategy has pursued a single strategy since 2020: amass Bitcoin, funding purchases by selling shares and issuing debt. That approach was highly profitable while the crypto market was rising, but it has come under severe strain in the current bear market. MicroStrategy now holds more than 700,000 BTC on its balance sheet — roughly $50 billion at current market quotes. However, its average purchase price is about $76,000 per BTC while the market price is $67,000. As noted above, Bitcoin is likely to fall further.

MicroStrategy's shares have already plunged roughly 60%, and many analysts fear investors may dump the stock not only because Bitcoin is falling but also as part of a broader risk?off wave. Let me remind you that late last year, many investors exited tech, AI, and crypto stocks amid global uncertainty. The key supportive legislation for the crypto industry, the CLARITY Act, has not been passed. A further decline in BTC could force MicroStrategy and other corporate holders to sell crypto assets — a scenario Michael Saylor hinted at in late 2025. Saylor later said the company could withstand a decline to $8,000 BTC, but few believed him. Analysts argue the "buy Bitcoin with everything" model is essentially dead; only the largest firms that can issue preferred shares are likely to survive such a whirlpool.

MicroStrategy's key indicator, mNAV, has fallen below one — a signal the company may be unable to continue raising capital to fund further crypto buys. With mNAV below one, shares can trade at a discount, which could force the company to repurchase its own stock, funded by sell-offs of crypto assets.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We still expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 now does not look like a final stop. On the daily TF, the last bearish FVG is a POI for short positions but remains far above current prices. The 4?hour TF shows three unresolved bearish FVGs, but these patterns belong to the prior movement and lie well above the current price; they are unlikely to trigger a trend resumption. In any case, Bitcoin cannot yet be considered to be in a corrective phase.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily TF, a downtrend has been going on. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As warned, the move provoked by that signal can be strong and prolonged. Since that pattern formed, Ethereum has already fallen about 55% (roughly $2,500). We expect a short?term corrective bounce. Local upside can be traded on bullish patterns on the 4?hour TF, but we do not recommend trading corrections. In the medium term, we expect the daily bearish patterns to play out and the downtrend to resume. Ethereum's downside targets extend down to $1,400.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one particular direction in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.