Top.Mail.Ru
empty
02.01.2025 05:21 PM
Analysis of EUR/USD on January 2, 2024

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair is becoming increasingly clear and coherent. Since January 2024, I can identify only two three-wave structures (a-b-c) with a pivot point on April 16. After the completion of wave c in the upward structure, a new downward structure began to form, which has a high chance of being impulsive. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a more convincing fifth wave, after which the pair may transition into a prolonged and complex corrective structure.

Overall, the current wave pattern appears straightforward and logical. It's worth noting that while the news background can mislead for a month, two, or even three, it cannot do so indefinitely. Recent U.S. reports show that the economy is not facing significant issues—there is no recession, nor is one anticipated. The economy may slow down, but its current growth rates suggest it can weather this phase without major losses. The Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy more slowly and modestly than the market expected at the beginning of the year. The ECB, on the other hand, sees no reason to pause and will continue its easing.

The Euro Resumes the Fifth Wave

The EUR/USD rate declined by 40 basis points on Thursday. While I didn't expect significant market activity on the year's first trading day, the movements were not entirely negligible either. Although 40 points is a small decline, the instrument has been gradually falling over recent weeks. This aligns with my earlier belief that the proposed fifth wave in the primary trend has already begun. Today, after successfully breaking the low of wave 3, my confidence in this pattern has only grown. Thus, I expect the market to continue reducing demand for the euro, and the instrument may soon approach the 1.0190 level, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci level.

The news background began to re-emerge on Thursday after a two-week lull. Manufacturing activity indices were released in Germany and the Eurozone (as well as several other EU countries). However, the final values of these indices offered no surprises and, therefore, could not have triggered the euro's decline. In my view, the decline at the start of the year is merely due to the incomplete formation of wave 5. To complete this wave, the market does not necessarily need supportive news for the U.S. dollar. I believe the instrument will find it challenging to fall below the 1.0200 level, but a successful attempt to break this level could indicate an extension of wave 5 within wave 1.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form a new downward trend segment. A failed attempt to break through the 1.1184 level indicated the start of a series of downward waves. Three failed attempts to breach the 200.0% Fibonacci mark suggested readiness to form wave 5, with targets extending to the 1.0200 level. Hence, selling remains relevant for me.

On a larger wave scale, the wave structure is transforming into a more complex pattern, predominantly consisting of corrective structures. We are likely to see a new set of downward waves, though its length and structure are currently difficult to predict.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often subject to changes.
  2. If uncertain about the market's direction, it is better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in price direction never exists. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

SP500 25 de abril. ¡Subimos siguiendo a Bitcoin!

Desde el punto de vista de las ondas de Elliott, en el índice se está formando una gran tendencia impulsiva en una perspectiva global. No hace mucho se completó

Roman Onegin 10:06 2025-04-25 UTC+2

NG 12 Feb. ¡Los toros mantienen el rumbo hacia un máximo de 4,31!

El marco temporal de cuatro horas muestra el trazado de una onda activa principal (Y), que tiene una forma interna compleja y es un doble zigzag de un nivel

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

SP500 12 de febrero. ¡Después de la finalización de la segunda parte del impulso, el precio puede subir más activamente!

Lo más probable es que se esté formando una tendencia alcista mayor en el panorama global del SP500, cuya estructura es similar a la del impulso. Si nos fijamos

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. ¿Dónde se encuentra la raíz de todos los problemas del dólar?

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:58 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 6 de julio. El destino complicado del dólar.

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de julio. La libra quiere caer, pero no puede.

La estructura de ondas del instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicada y muy confusa. Alrededor del nivel de 1.2822, que corresponde al 23.6% de Fibonacci y está cerca del pico

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de junio. El mercado espera la primera bajada de los tipos de interés en agosto.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado y confuso. Un intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó

Chin Zhao 13:12 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de junio. La Fed: No está lista para el aterrizaje.

En el gráfico de 4 horas, no hay cambios en la marca de la onda para el instrumento EUR/USD. En este momento, observamos la construcción de la esperada onda

Chin Zhao 10:51 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de junio. Los británicos retrocedieron, pero no se rindieron.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado. El intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó que el mercado está

Chin Zhao 08:27 2024-06-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de junio. El BCE confía en una mayor desaceleración de la inflación.

El patrón de onda del gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD se mantiene sin cambios. En este momento, estamos observando la construcción de la onda esperada

Chin Zhao 08:26 2024-06-09 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.