The price test at 1.3427 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid short entry point for the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The second half of the day is expected to be information-rich, with a focus on macroeconomic data and statements from influential figures in the financial world. Traders will closely watch the U.S. goods trade balance report. These data traditionally have a noticeable impact on the U.S. dollar and overall investor sentiment, as they serve as an indicator of the competitiveness of U.S. goods in global markets and reflect import demand.

Another key event today is the release of the Chicago Business Activity Index (Chicago PMI). This indicator is considered one of the leading measures of manufacturing activity in one of the most important industrial regions of the United States.

Also scheduled today is a speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman. In a context where, due to instability in the Middle East, the market is trying to determine the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, every statement from FOMC officials becomes especially important. Michelle Bowman's remarks may help clarify her view on current economic conditions, inflation risks, and the outlook for interest rate changes.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

BUY SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3424 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3455 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3455, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Pound strength today can only be expected on weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3405 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3424 and 1.3455 can be expected.

SELL SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3405 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers is 1.3376, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound today may return if strong U.S. data is released. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3424 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3405 and 1.3376 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and trading volumes are too large.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.