Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1702 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 12 points, and the move ended there.

The lack of relevant fundamental data from the Eurozone, as expected, put pressure on the euro. The absence of new information from the region that could clarify the current economic situation or outline future trends encourages investors to remain on the sidelines. The current geopolitical situation also creates uncertainty and reinforces the prevailing negative market sentiment.

Further movement of the US dollar will be determined by the release of US data on consumer confidence, housing price dynamics, and the ADP employment report. The consumer confidence indicator reflects how US households assess current and future economic conditions, while the housing price index serves as an indicator of the real estate market, which is directly correlated with overall economic conditions. Strong data will support the US dollar.

The weekly ADP employment report precedes the release of the more comprehensive US labor market report. Sustained job growth recorded by ADP is generally interpreted as a sign of a healthy labor market and may increase demand for the US dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro buying is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1705 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1726. At 1.1726, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after positive news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1685 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1705 and 1.1726 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1685 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1656, where I plan to exit the market and open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of a firm stance by the US and Iran. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1705 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1685 and 1.1656 can be expected.

On the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.