Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

Due to reduced volatility, the price did not test the levels I had identified during the first half of the day.

The currency market showed low activity in the first half of the day, largely due to the complete absence of significant news—both economic and geopolitical. Everyone is waiting to see how the United States and Donald Trump will act next, and whether they will actually close the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian tankers. If they do, it could lead to a sharp decline in risk assets, including the yen, and strengthen the US dollar.

The upcoming U.S. existing home sales report is unlikely to significantly affect the balance of power in the market. Despite the importance of the data for assessing current conditions, the market appears to have already priced in the expected results. More important is the meeting of representatives of the International Monetary Fund, which promises to have greater potential impact. Traders may react to any statements or decisions made at the IMF summit. Expectations of coordinated regulatory actions, possible adjustments to interest rate forecasts, or new initiatives to ensure energy stability could trigger short-term but noticeable volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.77 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.13 (thicker green line). Around 160.13, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). A rise in the pair today is possible if U.S. data is strong.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.59 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward 159.77 and 160.13 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.59 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 159.17, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.77 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.59 and 159.17 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.