April Fed meeting: splits on wording and Powell's final press conference

The April 2026 Federal Reserve meeting was the most divided since 1992. Miran (the "dovish" wing) pushed for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan (the "hawkish" wing) objected to the phrase "additional adjustments," arguing it would signal cuts ahead. They preferred a "neutral" phrasing, warning that energy-driven inflation could necessitate further tightening.

This was Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed chair — his term ends May 15. In his remarks, he reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to hold the current course until inflation returns to 2%. Powell also noted that the regulator must base decisions on macro data rather than political slogans. Follow the link for more details.

Fed signals and oil surge: US trading ends lower

US equity indices closed lower yesterday: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 each lost 0.04%, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.57%. Oil jumped to its highest level in nearly four years amid rising pessimism about resolving the Middle East conflict and following the Fed decision. Brent crude rose to $126.41 before pulling back to about $125, extending its nine-day bullish run.

Nasdaq 100 futures fell by about 0.3% after earlier gains of roughly 1.1%, driven by strong reports from Alphabet and Amazon. Other equity gauges weakened: the MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropped by 1.5%, and European shares are set to open about 1% lower. Bonds dipped as higher oil and firm Fed rhetoric dented demand for fixed income, and the 10-year JGB yield hit its highest level since 1997. Follow the link for more details.

Bulls return: retail investors outnumber bears amid S&P 500 rally

If someone had said two months ago that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed through the end of April, Wall Street would have painted a bearish scenario for US equities. Yet the S&P 500 is setting records and acting as if the Middle East conflict is behind it. Meanwhile, other markets continue to signal macro risks, and Brent has already traded above $120.

Investors are effectively shrugging off the oil shock by leaning on strong corporate results. The Magnificent Seven have rallied by more than 20% off March lows, and their earnings are expected to rise about 19% in Q1 and 25% in Q2. An AAII survey shows that retail bulls now outnumber bears for the first time since February 12. Follow the link for more details.