Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.98 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

After a notable decline during the Asian session, demand for the US dollar against the yen returned, even leading to a new daily high. Ahead, the economic calendar is packed with US statistical reports.

The flow of data will begin with initial jobless claims. It will conclude with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and data on changes in industrial production. A speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member John Williams is also expected. These macroeconomic indicators, released sequentially, will provide a comprehensive picture of the state of the US economy at the beginning of spring 2026. The upcoming data will be closely analyzed by market participants, especially in the context of future Federal Reserve monetary policy. Deviations from forecasts—whether positive or negative—may trigger increased volatility in the currency market and influence investor expectations regarding the future path of interest rates.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.25 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.45 (thicker green line). Around 159.45, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points). Growth of the pair today can be expected if the data is strong.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.02 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 159.25 and 159.45 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below 159.02 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.81, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data is weak.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.25 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.02 and 158.81 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when making trading decisions

Important Note for Beginners: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.