S&P 500

Summary for May 2

The US market showed a modest but steady rise.

On Friday, the main US indices closed in positive territory: the Dow Jones rose by 0.2%, the Nasdaq gained 1.5%, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, closing at 5,604, within the 5,150–5,800 trading range.

The stock market started the new month with gains. Major indices reached their daily highs, boosted by momentum from the sharp rebound off the April lows, and a strong response to earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT +7.6%) and Meta Platforms (META +4.2%).

Friday's advance marked the S&P 500's eighth consecutive positive session, closing above its 50-day moving average (5,592), after finishing near that level the previous day.

Buying interest was also driven by growing optimism surrounding the Trump trade war situation and rising hopes that the Fed may consider cutting the federal funds target range sooner rather than later, given weakening economic data.

Friday morning's economic data unveiled a relatively high level of initial jobless claims and another drop in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which came in below the 50% threshold.

Seven of the S&P 500's sectors closed higher, led by technology (+2.2%), communication services (+1.6%), and consumer discretionary (+1.0%). The healthcare sector underperformed, falling 2.8% after Eli Lilly (LLY –11.7%) lowered its full-year earnings forecast. Qualcomm (QCOM –8.9%) and McDonald's (MCD –1.9%) also declined following disappointing results.

US Treasury yields rose as bond prices fell. The 10-year yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-year yield rose by 8 basis points to 3.70%.

Year-to-date performance:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: –4.2%

S&P 500: –4.7%

S&P Midcap 400: –8.3%

Nasdaq Composite: –8.3%

Russell 2000: –11.4%

Key economic data released on Friday:

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: 241K (consensus: 225K); previous revised to 223K

Continuing Claims: 1.916M (previous revised to 1.833M)

The rise in both initial and continuing claims reinforces concerns about a weakening labor market, increasing the market's expectation that the Fed may lean toward a more accommodative stance.

Final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April: 50.2 points (unchanged from prior)

March Construction Spending: +0.5% (consensus: 0.3%); previous revised from 0.7% to 0.6%

A recovery in housing-related spending offers a positive signal for long-term housing market health.

April ISM Manufacturing Index: 48.7% (consensus: 47.9%); previous: 49.0%

A second consecutive contraction with prices rising sharply again paints a gloomy picture for manufacturing.

Looking ahead to Friday's data (ET):

8:30 AM:

April Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus: 130K; previous: 228K)

Nonfarm Private Payrolls (consensus: 125K; previous: 209K)

Average Hourly Earnings (consensus: 0.3%; previous: 0.3%)

Unemployment Rate (consensus: 4.2%; previous: 4.2%)

Average Workweek (consensus: 34.2; previous: 34.2)

10:00 AM:

March Factory Orders (consensus: 4.1%; previous: 0.6%)

Conclusion:

The market continues to rise. It is advisable to hold onto purchases from lower levels and consider adding positions if the market dips.

More analytical articles from Mikhail Makarov:

https://www.instaforthtex.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov

https://www.ifxcap.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov