Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I had outlined.

Today's indifference among traders can be explained by several factors. Market participants have likely already priced in expectations of negative eurozone industrial production data, adjusting to the current economic conditions. It is also possible that more optimistic news or expectations—such as potential support measures from the European Central Bank or improvements in the geopolitical situation—are offsetting the negative impact of industrial data. In addition, the decline in industrial output may be temporary, caused by seasonal factors or short-term logistical disruptions rather than signaling a return to the deep crisis seen in previous years.

The second half of the day in the U.S. financial markets is expected to remain calm. Investors and analysts will focus on a speech by Federal Open Market Committee member Michelle Bowman. Market participants will look for clues regarding future changes in the key interest rate, assessments of the current economic situation, inflation forecasts, and possible steps toward achieving the Federal Reserve's objectives. Particular attention will be paid to comments on the strength of the labor market, consumer price dynamics, and the overall economic outlook. Given that Michelle Bowman is considered a supporter of tighter monetary policy, traders will carefully analyze her remarks, which may confirm or contradict expectations of further rate cuts.

As for my intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches 1.1874 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1905. At 1.1905, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Strong euro growth can be expected only after weak U.S. statistics.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1857 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1874 and 1.1905 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1857 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1823, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1874 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1857 and 1.1823 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.