Given the strong market pessimism about the crypto market's future, Grayscale released a report yesterday that sharply contrasts with prevailing market sentiment. According to a few on-chain indicators, Bitcoin already looks cheap relative to its fair value. That does not mean the bottom has been reached — the firm explicitly says the market has not yet returned to previous cyclical lows, for example after the FTX crash. However, the current decline may be structurally less deep than in past cycles.

The reason is a qualitative change in the market environment: the development of spot ETFs, rising institutional demand and a much more mature market infrastructure create a new type of support that simply did not exist in prior bear cycles. Grayscale's conclusion is unequivocal: current levels may be attractive for long-term accumulation of Bitcoin.

The thesis aligns well with CryptoQuant data, which last week reported that the share of Bitcoin supply in losses reached 50% — historically, this has coincided with periods of market capitulation and cycle lows. Considering that Bitcoin has not fallen for a week despite seventeen consecutive days of ETF outflows, and is showing greater resilience than the S&P 500, which is uncommon for an asset usually considered correlated with tech stocks — the chances that the market is finding a bottom are reasonably good.

Strategy, after a symbolic sale of 32 coins, returned to buying and added 1,550 BTC. Tom Lee holds 5.4 million Ethereum and calls the moment "crypto-spring." The combination of these signals indicates that large, long-term capital is beginning to take current levels seriously.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $63,600, which opens a clear path to $65,800, and from there $67,700 is within easy reach — a breach of which would signal attempts to reestablish a bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $61,100. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $59,600. The most distant target would be the $58,200 area.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,686 opens a direct route to $1,763. The most distant target is the high around $1,838; clearing that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,615. A return below that area could quickly drive ETH toward $1,557. The furthest target would be the $1,496 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.