During Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair recorded a second consecutive close below the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1830 and continued its decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1770. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1830. A consolidation below 1.1770 would increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1696.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, and the new downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish." The bulls have taken a pause within a large-scale offensive that would have been impossible without Donald Trump. Trump has heated up the situation in the world and within the United States to the limit, but at the beginning of 2026, discussions began in the market about a possible impeachment of the president.

On Wednesday, the news background again supported the bears, as three U.S. reports showed more positive results than traders had expected. Durable goods orders declined by only 1.4%, rather than the 2.0% the market had anticipated. The number of building permits issued exceeded forecasts, and housing starts also came in above traders' expectations. Thus, in the second half of the day, the bears launched a renewed attack, and the dollar has been strengthening for two weeks now. In my view, there is something more behind the current strengthening of the U.S. dollar than just economic reports. At the beginning of 2026, market discussions emerged suggesting that the Republican Party could lose the next elections and at least lose control of the House of Representatives. The probability of this is currently estimated at 83%. The probability of losing the Senate is lower—around 40%—but it is steadily increasing. If Trump loses the House, impeachment proceedings would begin with a 100% probability. If both chambers are lost, the probability of a successful impeachment would be 70–80%. Perhaps the market is welcoming the possible resignation of Donald Trump by the end of the year?

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. Thus, the decline may continue toward 1.1748 and 1.1694. A consolidation above 1.1813 would favor the euro and some growth toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1919. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 16,403 long positions and closed 541 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 319,000, while short positions amount to 138,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players were reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Then a "shutdown" began, but now we are observing the same pattern: professional traders continue to build up long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States—for example, a serious deterioration in the labor market (2025) and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about a potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

U.S. – Change in Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On February 19, the economic calendar contains only one entry that can hardly be called important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a close on the hourly chart below 1.1889 with a target at 1.1830. The target was reached. New selling opportunities arose after a close below 1.1830 with a target at 1.1770. These trades can remain open on Thursday. Buying will become possible after a rebound from 1.1770 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1830.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.