Bitcoin has decreased by more than 50% since October of last year and shows no signs of halting its decline or even a slight recovery. There are no "bullish" patterns, and a break in the downward structure is neither present nor anticipated in the near future. As we have mentioned, the crypto community is currently divided into two camps: those who actively trade and analyze, and those who constantly predict growth. In simple terms, some traders and investors are interested in Bitcoin's perpetual rise, and individuals who take a more realistic view.

One of the honest and fair market experts, Michael Burry, stated this week that the fundamental backdrop for Bitcoin has not changed over the past weeks. Therefore, there are no reasons to expect the end of its decline. He warned that in recent years, many companies have followed MicroStrategy's example, buying "digital gold" with all their money, including borrowed funds. However, MicroStrategy is still a large company capable of enduring significant drawdowns for an extended time. This cannot be said for several smaller companies, for which a 50% drop in Bitcoin could be catastrophic.

Burry warned that Bitcoin might enter a "death spiral," which would sustain itself through cascading sell-offs and the closing of pending long orders. He noted that Bitcoin once again failed to prove itself as a store of value or an inflation hedge. Amid concerns over further depreciation of the American currency, geopolitical tensions, and problems in the US economy, investors preferred gold and silver as safe havens over Bitcoin. The expert also cautioned that if Bitcoin drops another 10%, liquidity issues may begin to affect even MicroStrategy. Furthermore, a wave of bankruptcies among miners could follow, as the estimated cost to mine one Bitcoin currently ranges from $70,000 to $90,000.

The crypto expert also pointed out that demand for Bitcoin from treasury companies and the establishment of new Bitcoin funds are insufficient to support the price of the main crypto asset. Such companies are required to value their assets at market value, and if the price falls, they must recalculate their capital. If capital levels decrease, risk management will demand offloading depreciating and risky assets, potentially sparking a new wave of sell-offs.

Recommendations for Trading BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect declines, targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% level from a three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even the $57,500 level no longer appears to be a final stop. Among the areas of interest for selling on the daily timeframe, the last bearish FVG can be noted, which Bitcoin is still very far from reaching. There is also a bearish FVG on the 4-hour timeframe. A reaction to any of these FVGs, along with confirmation on a shorter timeframe, creates an opportunity to open new shorts.

Recommendations for Trading ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the downward trend continues to form. The key pattern for selling has been and remains a bearish Order Block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the movement provoked by this signal may be strong and prolonged. After its formation, Ethereum has already declined by 55% or $2,500. In the near future, one could expect an upward correction, but the only "bullish" pattern on the 4-hour timeframe has already been invalidated. Instead, two bearish FVGs were formed, which have a higher probability of producing sell signals aligned with the trend.

Explanations of the Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Break of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – The liquidity and Stop Loss orders of traders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Area of price inefficiency. Prices move very quickly through these areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, prices tend to return and react to such areas.
• IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react but breaks through impulsively and then tests it from the opposite side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position aimed at acquiring liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.