Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1690 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Worrisome news from the Middle East rightly raises concerns. Information about a supposed attack on an American warship in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as reports of shelling of UAE territory, cannot fail to cause serious alarm. These events have already put pressure on the euro, potentially escalating tensions. The situation requires a careful approach from all participants. Diplomatic efforts should focus on de-escalation and preventing further exacerbation; however, if this does not happen, the pressure on risk assets will only increase.

Today, there are no important fundamental data from the Eurozone in the first half of the day, so all traders' attention will be on the meeting of the EU finance ministers and the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Special attention will be given to any hints regarding interest rate changes. Against the backdrop of rising inflation, the markets expect the ECB to be forced to return to tightening monetary policy. However, the impending recession in some Eurozone countries may require the central bank to act more cautiously to avoid worsening the economic downturn. Such a dilemma places Lagarde in a difficult position, balancing price stability with financial support for the economy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching the entry point around 1.1695 (green line on the chart) with a target increase to 1.1721. At point 1.1721, I intend to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated after positive news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1677 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.1695 and 1.1721 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1677 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be at 1.1646, where I intend to exit my short positions and also open immediate long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1695 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1677 and 1.1646 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.