Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1707 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair did not proceed with any upward movement.

The release of Eurozone lending data and M3 money supply figures did not trigger any noticeable positive reaction in the euro during the first half of the day. During this time, the EUR/USD pair remained within a narrow trading range, showing weak activity and low liquidity, which is typical ahead of important fundamental data releases.

Today's decision by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee on the key interest rate will attract all attention. This highly anticipated verdict could become a defining moment, setting the direction for financial markets in the near future. Traders and economists expect rates to remain unchanged. Particular importance is attached to the upcoming press conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak for the last time in his current role. His final remarks in such a high position will carry weight, shaping expectations regarding the trajectory of interest rates and other monetary policy tools. Any deviation from general forecasts could trigger sharp price movements, so market direction will depend on nuances in wording, tone, and answers to journalists' questions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1710 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1750. At 1.1750, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Growth in the euro today can only be expected if the Fed takes a dovish stance.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1693 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1710 and 1.1750 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1693 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1652, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1710 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1693 and 1.1652 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.