Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday. In the US, absolutely secondary reports such as the ADP (weekly) and the CB Consumer Confidence Index will be published today. Neither of these reports has even a theoretical chance of being highlighted by the market. In Germany, the UK, and the European Union, the publication calendar is empty today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, Christine Lagarde's speech could be highlighted, but she already gave two speeches last week, and the European Central Bank meeting will take place on Thursday. Thus, it is unlikely that Lagarde will provide the market with any important information today. Traders continue to generally ignore the monetary policy factor, just as they do the macroeconomic background. Therefore, statements from representatives of the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England do not hold much significance at the moment. We are not even sure that the market will react to the central bank meetings themselves.

No one expects the Fed to tighten monetary policy in 2026, while the BoE and the ECB may raise key rates due to rising inflation, but not in April. The geopolitical background remains highly uncertain; as a result, central banks are reluctant to make important monetary policy decisions. The war in the Middle East may resume if the deal between Iran and the US is not signed. A deal cannot be signed if Iran does not even agree to a second round of negotiations. Meanwhile, the ceasefire continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs will trade technically. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the ranges of 1.3476-1.3489 and 1.3587-1.3598. The downward correction in both currency pairs may continue, but this week the fundamental and macroeconomic background will be very strong, the geopolitical factor has already taken a back seat, and the prospects for the euro and pound remain positive.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.