Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test at 157.91 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move below the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by only 12 pips.

The US currency's strengthening against the yen followed US President Donald Trump's statement that he would not impose customs tariffs. This followed a productive meeting with the Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Alliance, Mark Rutte, during which the foundations of a future agreement regarding Greenland were laid. Although details of the Greenland agreement still need clarification, the initial stage has already been implemented.

The agreement is expected to imply an increase in the US contingent on the island, investments in infrastructure development, and partnership initiatives in the mining industry. The decision was perceived by the market as a softening of the US trade stance, restoring the dollar's appeal and putting pressure on the Japanese yen. It is unlikely to receive support from the Bank of Japan tomorrow, since no changes in monetary policy are expected.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No.1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 158.99 (green line on the chart), aiming to rise to 159.38 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.38, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts on the reversal (expecting a 30–35-pip move to the downside from that level). It is best to return to buying on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No.2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests 158.62 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels, 158.99 and 159.38.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No.1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a break below 158.62 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.24, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs on the rebound (expecting a 20–25-pip move back from that level). It is best to sell at the highest level possible. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No.2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the pair tests 158.99 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels, 158.62 and 158.24.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.