Top.Mail.Ru
empty
06.05.2025 12:50 AM
The Dollar Sell-Off Shows No Signs of Slowing Down

The latest CFTC report reveals that the dollar sell-off continues unabated. Weekly changes against major currencies amounted to -$3.1 billion, bringing the total accumulated short position to -$17.1 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

One of the reasons the dollar has struggled to regain momentum is China's refusal to yield to pressure from Donald Trump. The U.S. and China remain at odds over whether trade negotiations have begun. Trump claimed several times last week that discussions with China had taken place, which Beijing denied. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — who appears to be leading the trade talks — stated that he was unaware of any conversation between Trump and Xi. Meanwhile, shelves in major U.S. retail chains are being emptied, and price increases are looming unless tariffs are reduced soon. Container shipping data shows that trade between the two countries has nearly stopped, as importers have stopped placing orders. American farmers also see a significant decline in exports to their largest foreign market.

China's defiance appears to have placed it in a stronger position than Trump had anticipated. Negotiations may be underway behind the scenes, but they are kept quiet until a tangible — even if temporary — result is achieved to ease tensions. With no visible progress, the dollar remains under mounting pressure as time works against the U.S. On Monday, the dollar weakened again as speculation grew that several Asian countries may consider revaluing their currencies to pressure the U.S. into making concessions.

The swap market has not revised its outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory, and it is still pricing in three cuts this year. Nothing in the recent data has been enough to shift that view, as the latest GDP and labor market reports painted a blurred and contradictory picture. First-quarter GDP showed an annualized decline of -0.3%, mainly due to a surge in imports in anticipation of new tariffs. Domestic demand remains stable and is not yet a cause for concern. Preliminary labor data indicated declines (ADP, job vacancies, and job indices) and weaker consumer activity. However, Friday's official report surprised with stronger-than-expected job growth.

The upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday carries a low probability of a rate cut. All attention will be on Jerome Powell's press conference, where he will face intense pressure. Trump has repeatedly said he expects a rate cut from the Fed and has hinted at the possible dismissal of Powell — though he recently walked that back to reassure markets. The mere threat of pressure on the Fed has pushed bond yields lower. As a result, Powell may issue a direct signal that a rate cut is possible in June. If markets pick up on such a hint, it could trigger a renewed wave of dollar sell-offs.

The S&P 500 stock index rose last week, but the rally was largely psychological — driven by expectations that Trump's tariff policy might eventually pay off. Additionally, the earlier drop starting in February was so sharp that a correction was inevitable. The index had lost 50% of its gains over the prior 28 months.

This image is no longer relevant

Still, in the long term, we expect that once the current correction ends, the index will resume its decline. A U.S. recession now appears almost inevitable. Our long-term target is 5130. A move to this level could unfold quickly or gradually, depending on the political landscape and how soon the U.S. economy's weakening fundamentals become undeniable. Global trade is now a black box—anything could come from it.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Nos Estados Unidos, como de costume, haverá eventos e notícias muito mais relevantes do que na zona do euro ou no Reino Unido. Os dados econômicos começam a ser divulgados

Chin Zhao 17:18 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Libra Britânica: Prévia semanal

No Reino Unido, o calendário de notícias da próxima semana será bem mais interessante, embora eu não acredite que isso vá impactar significativamente o sentimento do mercado. A libra continua

Chin Zhao 17:18 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Euro: prévia semanal

Tédio — puro e simples. É assim que a próxima semana se desenha para a moeda europeia. Desde já, é importante esclarecer que esta análise se concentra apenas no histórico

Chin Zhao 17:09 2025-06-09 UTC+2

O Bitcoin entra em conflito

A maior surpresa de junho foi a divergência entre os índices de ações dos EUA e as criptomoedas. O S&P 500 e o Bitcoin são normalmente considerados ativos de risco

Marek Petkovich 17:04 2025-06-09 UTC+2

O "velho" Donald, o lutador, parece estar se esgotando (há chances de crescimento contínuo nos contratos de CFDs #NDX e #SPX)

Apesar de todas as dificuldades, incertezas e da tensão generalizada no mercado, os índices de ações continuam a subir. Os investidores acreditam que Donald Trump terá de recuar

Pati Gani 16:39 2025-06-09 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Análise e previsão.

No início da nova semana de negociações, o par AUD/USD apresenta um impulso de alta consistente, recuperando-se de uma leve correção e aproximando-se novamente dos máximos registrados em novembro

Irina Yanina 16:23 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Relatório de emprego positivo sustenta o dólar canadense

A variação líquida do emprego em maio foi de +8,8 mil postos de trabalho, superando o crescimento registrado em abril e apresentando dados muito sólidos, especialmente em comparação

Kuvat Raharjo 16:11 2025-06-09 UTC+2

China e EUA dão um passo importante em direção à reconciliação

O euro e a libra recuperaram as perdas da última sexta-feira, retomando gradualmente o movimento de alta. Esse avanço é sustentado pela retomada das negociações entre os Estados Unidos

Jakub Novak 15:53 2025-06-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par USD/JPY está apresentando uma fraqueza moderada nesta segunda-feira, caindo em direção ao nível psicológico de 144,00. A queda é impulsionada por uma combinação de fatores, incluindo o fortalecimento

Irina Yanina 14:38 2025-06-09 UTC+2

WTI - West Texas Intermediate. Análise e previsão

No início da nova semana, os preços do petróleo bruto West Texas Intermediate (WTI) estão tentando se manter próximos das máximas de sexta-feira. Altos funcionários dos EUA, incluindo o secretário

Irina Yanina 14:29 2025-06-09 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.