Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.3377 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. A similar situation occurred with buying from the 1.3402 level.
The British pound came under pressure as data from Nationwide showed a 0.6% month-over-month decline in UK housing prices. This figure was significantly worse than economists' forecasts. The weak data intensified concerns about the state of the UK economy. In the short term, prospects for the British pound remain uncertain. Further strong U.S. economic data may increase pressure on the currency.
In the second half of the day, U.S. GDP figures for the first quarter and ADP employment growth data are expected. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and data on U.S. income and spending levels will also be in the spotlight for traders. In particular, the GDP data release could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Weak economic growth would push the Fed toward a more dovish rate strategy, weakening the U.S. dollar. The ADP report, as a leading indicator ahead of official labor statistics, can also contribute to the overall picture. A stronger-than-expected employment figure would confirm the U.S. economy's resilience and strengthen the dollar's position.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3380 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise toward 1.3435 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3435, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move downward from the level. Pound strength today can only be expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3350 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3380 and 1.3435 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below 1.3350 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3298 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Sellers will become active in response to strong data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3380 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3350 and 1.3298 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
- Thin green line – the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought;
- Thick green line – the suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold;
- Thick red line – the suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – it is important to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important. Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is, by default, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
