Top.Mail.Ru
empty
18.04.2025 09:16 AM
The Market Taken Hostage

Will the White House cross the Rubicon by initiating the dismissal of Jerome Powell from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? That would deal another blow to financial markets, but for now, the S&P 500 has reacted calmly to the barrage of criticism from Donald Trump toward the central bank's head. Trump claims he never liked Powell and accuses him of playing political games by refusing to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, everything is falling—oil and gasoline—except the cost of borrowing in the U.S. remains high. Is it time to change horses midstream?

The S&P 500 has declined in seven of the past nine weeks, reacting sharply to developments surrounding the White House's tariff policies. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration is doing everything possible to create an optimistic backdrop. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasize progress in talks with Japan; the president says he no longer wants to raise tariffs against China, and a deal with the European Union is "almost in the bag." According to him, the U.S. has everything Europe wants, so a trade agreement is inevitable.

Weekly Performance of the S&P 500

This image is no longer relevant

How much higher can it go? The official tariff on Chinese imports stands at 145%, but levies reach up to 245% for some goods. For instance, after a 25% tariff on electric vehicles imposed during Trump's first term, Joe Biden raised it to 100%, and now the Republican contender has added another 145%. He urges Beijing to return to negotiations, arguing that the longer China delays, the more detrimental it will be for bilateral trade.

It's clear that the S&P 500's decline and temporary dip into "bear market" territory made an impression on the White House occupant. The broad equity index still has the potential to rise, as updated forecasts from Bloomberg analysts indicate.

Expert Forecasts for the S&P 500

This image is no longer relevant

There's both bad and good news. The median forecast for the end of 2025 has been revised from 6,539 to 6,047, indicating a 7.5% decline. Even during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing recession, analysts only trimmed their projections by 5%. This signals that we're witnessing tectonic shifts in the market. The good news is that if the consensus forecast materializes, the S&P 500 could climb by about 14% from current levels.

This image is no longer relevant

I believe the market will continue to be affected by increased volatility. Until the situation with White House tariffs and their impact on the U.S. economy becomes clearer, investors will lack enthusiasm for buying American stocks, especially now that New York Fed President John Williams has echoed Jerome Powell's stance on keeping the federal funds rate elevated.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 has formed an inside bar. This provides grounds to place pending buy orders from 5,335 and sell orders from the lower boundary of 5,215. If triggered, the latter could present an opportunity to build on previously opened short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par USD/JPY continua sob pressão, apesar do dólar americano ter registrado ganhos moderados pelo segundo dia consecutivo, aproximando-se do nível 144,00. A melhora no sentimento global em relação

Irina Yanina 22:17 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Boas notícias apoiarão os mercados de ações e a demanda por tokens (potencial de alta para Bitcoin e #NDX)

O mercado ignorou os dados extremamente fracos sobre o emprego divulgados pela ADP, concentrando-se em outros fatores. O relatório da ADP, publicado na quarta-feira, revelou uma desaceleração significativa no setor

Pati Gani 17:00 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Trump ataca a China usando o Vietnã como peça estratégica

Ontem, foi divulgado que o presidente Donald Trump fechou um acordo comercial com o Vietnã. Isso ocorreu após várias semanas de intensas negociações diplomáticas entre os dois países e poucos

Jakub Novak 16:07 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Um sinal de alerta para a economia dos EUA

Os dados sobre o emprego nos EUA divulgados ontem serviram como um alerta para a economia americana. Segundo o relatório, o número de pessoas empregadas diminuiu em junho pela primeira

Jakub Novak 15:41 2025-07-03 UTC+2

O mercado aposta nos lucros

O mercado continua confiante em um futuro positivo e ouve apenas o que quer ouvir. As notícias negativas são ignoradas, permitindo que o S&P 500 alcance novos recordes. Não importa

Marek Petkovich 15:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

Os preços do ouro estão encontrando dificuldade para ganhar impulso após uma recuperação moderada ao longo do dia a partir do nível de 3.340 dólares. Os traders permanecem cautelosos, preferindo

Irina Yanina 14:22 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Análise e previsão

No segundo dia consecutivo de alta, o par se aproxima mais uma vez da máxima anual registrada no início desta semana. O acordo comercial entre os Estados Unidos

Irina Yanina 14:18 2025-07-03 UTC+2

A União Europeia está pronta para fazer "concessões"

A União Europeia está aceitando a proposta dos Estados Unidos sobre tarifas de importação, mas está apresentando várias contrapropostas. Lembro que Donald Trump introduziu tarifas individuais contra cada parceiro comercial

Chin Zhao 22:01 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Euro forte preocupa cada vez mais os formuladores de políticas do BCE

O euro subiu significativamente este ano, e as autoridades do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) estão cada vez mais preocupadas com o fato de que a rápida valorização da moeda possa

Jakub Novak 20:06 2025-07-02 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Declarações políticas e econômicas recentes têm exercido impacto significativo na dinâmica do par USD/JPY. O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, expressou frustração com as prolongadas negociações comerciais com o Japão

Irina Yanina 19:44 2025-07-02 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.